Bitcoin started to decline again at 11 PM on the 9th, until it experienced the last K-line drop at 5 AM on the 10th, with an overall drop of nearly 6000 USD, hitting a low of 94150, leading the entire crypto market to experience an extreme drop from 4 AM to 5 AM yesterday. In fact, such behavior is not surprising, as every bull market will have such extreme trends. Since November 5, after Trump’s election victory, the entire mainstream altcoin market has risen to a new level, with sustained interest for a month, and most gains achieving a range of 100%-200%. Too many long positions have accumulated profits, thus the price correction for long positions is inevitable.
On the 6th, the medal wrote an analysis article, predicting that the price would likely make a sharp drop followed by a second dip to the support level of 9100-95000, with BTC price at 98500. Because the price hit a low of 90500 quickly pulling back above 98000 at 6 AM on the 6th. As expected, three days later, the price experienced such a trend and led to a sharp decline in the entire mainstream altcoin market.
From the perspective of the overall market retracement, starting from the very top, the total retracement has reached about 40%, and the retracement is quite sufficient, with most K-lines touching the maximum support level MA60's upward trend line on the daily chart.
Regarding the upcoming trend, the medal believes that Bitcoin will continue to maintain a high price because the market has formed a strong bullish consensus. Moreover, many institutions and market leaders like ETFs are still continuously buying, maintaining over 300 million USD of new ETF funds each day (corresponding to over 3000 Bitcoins absorbed daily, more than 20000 a week). The main factor for Bitcoin's current price stagnation is the need for further chip exchange to reduce profit-taking, increase new turnover, and lower the price fluctuations caused by immediate profit groups, rather than a peak behavior. Therefore, we will continue to see Bitcoin's price hovering around 97000, with the price pressured below 98500, testing the support level of 94000 in the short term, and the closer it gets to the strong support at 90000, the more likely a stronger quick rebound will occur. The maximum expected retracement is in the ultra-strong buying area at 86000 USD. Also, since Bitcoin completed the pinning crash on the 6th, it is expected that there will be little chance of a rapid drop due to non-emergency news in the coming month, and the price will maintain mild fluctuations.
Regarding the trends of other altcoins, everyone needs to be a bit more patient. Prices do not immediately soar after being doused with cold water. Based on multiple similar trend experiences, prices will continue to test the bottom (where the bottom is the lowest point when the coin was pinned). During this period, the main players will continuously accumulate chips in preparation for similar actions later. A comprehensive market sell-off requires having a large amount of spot chips in hand to achieve a unified rapid sell-off that causes a drop. The sold chips need to be bought back again; I hope everyone can understand this process. Thus, you will see prices repeat rising and falling, meaning that after a rebound from the very bottom, hope is seen, followed by a lack of strength to test the bottom support again, and then rebounding after that. This period requires patience and can be quite tedious.
Regarding the upcoming market response, for medium to long-term holders of mainstream altcoins, after bottom fishing, they can simply hold and wait. For short-term traders, they can participate in short trades around the lowest support levels, exiting when the price rises about 10%, and then continue to wait for bottom entry opportunities. Each entry should be adjusted upwards by a certain margin because the low testing levels will rise. After repeating this several times, one can hold onto low position chips without wavering, waiting for continuous upward movements. Based on the market situation, the bottom's lingering time usually starts to rise after 5-10 days.
A must-read for crypto enthusiasts: the strategies of major market players are diverse, and ordinary participants can easily be misled and incur losses; timely attention to the medal can help you stand high and pursue wealth in the crypto circle from a professional perspective.$BTC