On December 10, Google announced on its official blog that it has launched the latest quantum chip, Willow, sparking renewed discussion in the crypto community about the topic of quantum computing attacks. Will quantum computing undermine existing cryptographic security mechanisms, particularly posing a threat to mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin?
Partly influenced by news, as of December 10 at 14:20, according to Coinglass data, a severe cryptocurrency market correction triggered $1.758 billion in liquidations within 24 hours.
Google launches the latest quantum chip 'Willow.'
Google announced in a blog post that the 'Willow' quantum chip has achieved two significant milestones. First, as the number of quantum bits (qubit, the unit of quantum information) increases, Willow can achieve an exponential reduction in error rates, overcoming a key challenge in quantum error correction that has been pursued for nearly 30 years. Second, Willow completed a standard benchmark calculation in less than five minutes, while the same calculation task would take even the fastest supercomputers today 10^25 years to complete, a number far exceeding the age of the universe.
'This provides credible support for the view of quantum computing taking place in multiple parallel universes, which aligns with our theory of living in a multiverse, a prediction first proposed by David Deutsch,' stated Hartmut Neven, founder and head of Google Quantum AI, in a blog post.
Quantum bits (qubit) are the basic units of information and the core of quantum computing; the more quantum bits there are, the stronger the computing power. However, increasing the number of quantum bits also brings a higher risk of errors. If the error rate is too high, the computation becomes unreliable and produces incorrect results, making it difficult for quantum technology to achieve practical large-scale applications.
On December 9, Google CEO Sundar Pichai stated in a post on X that Willow is a significant step towards building 'practical quantum computers,' with potential applications in drug development, nuclear fusion energy, and battery design.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk expressed admiration for Google's invention in response to Pichai's tweet. Pichai then replied that they would collaborate on the quantum cluster for Starship in the future.
Is cryptocurrency security facing challenges? Opinions vary.
Does Willow pose a threat to cryptocurrencies? Advances in quantum computing have long been viewed as a potential turning point for the crypto industry. If quantum computers can crack current encryption algorithms, they could quickly expose user funds, bringing a huge risk of theft. However, opinions on this matter vary.
Tech entrepreneur and former senior product manager at Google Kevin Rose stated in a post on X on December 9 that Willow currently does not pose a threat to cryptocurrencies. Rose pointed out that it is estimated that cracking Bitcoin's encryption would require a quantum computer with about 13 million qubits to complete the decryption in 24 hours. 'In contrast, Google's Willow chip, while a significant advancement, has only 105 qubits,' he said.
Avalanche founder Emin Gün Sirer stated this morning that the latest developments in quantum computing are indeed impressive, but at least for now, they do not pose a threat to the security of cryptocurrencies. Current quantum computing is suitable for performing only a few types of tasks, such as digital factorization, and cannot reverse one-way hash functions. Mainstream blockchain designs, including Bitcoin and Avalanche, have certain quantum resistance, with a short exposure time for public keys, leaving attackers with a limited calculation window, so quantum computing still cannot threaten cryptocurrencies in the short term. In the future, when quantum threats do arise, blockchains like Avalanche can quickly add quantum-resistant signatures.
Dragonfly partner Haseeb Qureshi shares a similar view and cites a report from Metaculus stating that Shor's algorithm is not expected to crack RSA keys until around 2040.
Another Bitcoin OG, Ben Sigman, also pointed out in his post on the X platform that Bitcoin users should not worry about this invention and stated that 'cryptographic technology is still secure... at least for now.'
Nevertheless, David Marcus, CEO of payment platform Lightspark, stated that he believes most people 'have not yet fully understood' the significance of Google's breakthrough. Marcus pointed out that this means 'post-quantum encryption and cryptographic technology need to accelerate development.'
In fact, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has proposed a method to mitigate the risks of quantum computing. He explained in a post on X in March that this issue can be resolved through a simple hard fork. Buterin stated that the blockchain needs to undergo a hard fork, and users will need to download new wallet software, but most users will not lose their funds.
Quantum computing and Bitcoin, experts suggest freezing Satoshi Nakamoto's 1 million BTC.
The proof-of-work (POW) mechanism, crucial in Bitcoin operations, requires miners to solve complex mathematical problems to validate transactions and ensure network security. However, quantum computing, with its unprecedented computing speed, may threaten this balance.
Quantum algorithms like Grover's theoretically can solve these problems faster than traditional computers. Therefore, this technology has the potential to centralize mining power, undermining the decentralized ethos of Bitcoin.
According to estimates from Dan A. Bard, a staff member at the University of Kent, the hash rate of the Bitcoin network is growing at the same rate as the current value of quantum computing technology, following Moore's Law, and it is estimated that it will take about 27 years until a single quantum computer can completely surpass other miners in the network, thereby gaining full control of the network.
Additionally, Bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), a key technology for protecting wallet addresses, is also at risk. Quantum computers may use Shor's algorithm in the future to crack ECC, exposing Bitcoin transactions to potential security vulnerabilities. This vulnerability particularly affects well-known early addresses, including a significant portion of Bitcoin held by Bitcoin's creator Satoshi Nakamoto.
Emin Gün Sirer, mentioned above, noted this more severe scenario in response to Haseeb's post: 'Haseeb reminded me that Satoshi's 1 million bitcoins may indeed face quantum threat issues. Early bitcoins used a very old Pay-To-Public-Key format, which exposes public keys, giving attackers time to study them, which is the source of all cryptographic bounties. Modern Bitcoin wallets or systems like Avalanche do not use P2P K, but it did exist in the early stages of Bitcoin. Therefore, as the quantum threat intensifies, the Bitcoin community may need to consider freezing Satoshi's 1 million bitcoins or, more generally, providing a final date to freeze all bitcoins on P2P K UTXO.'
'Once the public key is exposed, a modified Shor's algorithm can run on an ideal quantum computer to find the public key in polynomial time. In traditional methods, the process of finding the solution is super-polynomial and is several orders of magnitude slower... Polynomial time is potentially feasible, and researchers speculate that ECDSA will ultimately be cracked by quantum computers,' wrote researchers at Acheron Trading.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin community seems unlikely to shift from the proof-of-work (POW) mechanism to alternative consensus mechanisms like proof-of-stake (POS). Even cryptographer Adam Back has stated that PoS cryptocurrencies lack immutability, decentralization, and verifiable high production costs, emphasizing their fundamental differences from Bitcoin.
'As hard currency, immutable, decentralized, and with verifiable production costs. The technology structure is designed for economic stability and is practically difficult to modify. PoS coins do not have these characteristics; they have CEOs and dozens of competitors. Bitcoin only has one,' Back stated.
This resistance to change reflects the Bitcoin community's concern about quantum threats and the importance of addressing them. Although the threat of quantum computing has not fully materialized, proactive measures are still key to protecting the Bitcoin network from future quantum attacks.
However, some others, including some quantum computer developers, believe this concern is unnecessary. By the time quantum computers become reliable and powerful enough to attack Bitcoin, blockchain developers will have already patched the vulnerabilities that can be exploited.