$BTC will drop to $90,000?

Recently, the Bitcoin market has experienced volatility, with prices falling to around $97,000 on December 10, down over 4% in the last 24 hours, and 6.40% lower than the historical high of $103,650 five days ago. This downward trend occurred before a crucial shareholder vote at Microsoft, which will determine whether Bitcoin will be included in the company's treasury.

On the eve of the U.S. presidential election on October 24, Microsoft added a section on 'Assessment of Investment in Bitcoin' in the 14A form submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), indicating that the company is evaluating the possibility of Bitcoin as a diversification tool. However, the 'Board's Recommendation' section suggested that shareholders vote against it, stating that the company's management has conducted an in-depth assessment of the matter.

Before the vote on December 10, there was a surge in interest for the keyword 'Microsoft Bitcoin' on Google search. This typically reflects the curiosity of retail traders, and this decline in Bitcoin may be related to traders' cautious attitudes ahead of the vote, especially considering the Microsoft board does not support the recommendation to include Bitcoin in the company’s funds. This may also lower market expectations, as traders believe that the Bitcoin price may decline further after the voting results are announced.

Meanwhile, the decline in Bitcoin prices is also due to significant fluctuations in the prices of Bitcoin held by traders for 6 to 12 months. According to data shared by on-chain analyst Miniole, from December 4 to December 7, these long-term holders transferred approximately 179,000 BTC. These tokens may have realized profits close to $100,000.

The ongoing price adjustments of Bitcoin align with the rising daily relative profit and loss (P/L) ratio, which has recently matched the historical peak of $73,400 in the first quarter of 2024. Historically, a higher profit and loss ratio indicates that long-term holders may be taking profits, although in some cases, the selling pressure from profit-takers may be absorbed by retail investors.