The market is undergoing a critical turning point. After Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 mark this week, investors' attention has shifted to the next price target. Based on comprehensive data analysis, multiple indicators are showing that Bitcoin is expected to reach new heights of $150,000 in 2025.
This report will conduct an in-depth analysis through 10 key indicators from the following four dimensions:
Time Series Cycle Analysis
Macroeconomic Factors
Market Demand Dynamics
On-chain Data Indicators
Time Series Cycle Analysis
1. The current Bitcoin price trend is highly similar to past cycles.
2. The market has entered the most explosive phase, which is the period of fastest price acceleration.
3. Throughout historical cycles, Bitcoin enters the red zone of the power law probability model (97% position). If this cycle repeats this pattern, it means Bitcoin's price will break through $196,000.
Macroeconomic Factors
4. The current macro environment is in the most favorable state since 2021. Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to changes in monetary policy and global liquidity.
5. It is expected that interest rate cuts will continue in 2025, which will create strong macro support for risk assets.
Market Demand Dynamics
6. MicroStrategy continues to buy according to its 21/21 plan (aiming to hold 21% of the total Bitcoin supply, with $29.3 billion remaining to invest).
This affects Bitcoin demand from two aspects:
MicroStrategy's continuous and aggressive buying pressure
Speculative funds are positioning themselves in advance to cope with future buying pressure
7. The holdings of U.S. spot ETFs have exceeded 1.1 million Bitcoins, surpassing the amount held by Satoshi Nakamoto. This brings sustained buying pressure. The spot ETF has also created an extremely strong 'unit bias' effect.
On-chain Data Indicators
8. Retail demand for Bitcoin has surged, reaching the highest level since 2020.
9. New funds are driving Bitcoin's current price trend. 'Even at $102,000, it is far from reaching bubble levels - to reach what is typically considered a bubble threshold would require a 43% increase.'
10. Even at the $100,000 level, profit-taking pressure is easing, indicating that selling pressure is cooling down.
Market Outlook
Currently, multiple factors are highly aligned, indicating that the upward trend will continue. In such a macro environment, Bitcoin breaking through $150,000 will inject strong momentum into the entire cryptocurrency market.
The increase in market liquidity will inevitably bring about a more significant upward trend, especially for the altcoin market. In the coming weeks, we will continue to track and share noteworthy altcoin investment opportunities.
[Disclaimer] The market has risks, and investments should be made with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at your own risk.
