After Bitcoin reached a new high, the possible directions the market may take can be observed from three dimensions. These possible scenarios are supported by historical experience and also incorporate unique changes in the current market. Here is the analysis:
Scenario one: the rebound of Ethereum and related altcoins
Looking back at previous bull markets, after Bitcoin leads, funds often flow into Ethereum and its related ecosystems, achieving a round of rebounds.
However, the performance of the rebound market at the beginning of this year was not as expected. One important reason is that the launch of the Ethereum ETF did not generate much excitement. At the same time, the popularity of DePIN projects and BTC staking projects diverted some funds. Additionally, many heavyweight projects on Ethereum opened at high market caps during this period, putting pressure on market liquidity.
However, the situation has improved now:
These projects have undergone a period of price correction, and their market caps are being re-priced, easing market pressure.
Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, indicating that funds are beginning to refocus on Ethereum.
Multiple L2 projects have launched and issued coins, with Base chain and BNB chain also attracting funds back.
With these positive factors combined, the rebound market for Ethereum and related altcoins is worth looking forward to.
Scenario two: BNB drives platform tokens to new highs
Yesterday, BNB achieved a new high. This is not only a performance of the BNB chain but also reflects the overall trend of first-tier platform tokens.
The pricing logic of platform tokens can be divided into two parts:
1. Brokerage logic: Exchanges use part of their revenue for platform token repurchases to stabilize token prices.
2. Dividend effect: staking and new listings are similar to shareholder dividends. Especially in a bull market, while earnings increase, the price of platform tokens also rises.
The uniqueness of BNB lies in the fact that it is both a public chain coin and a platform coin:
After the addition of GalaBNB and CZ's return, the BNB chain has been very active, and ecological expansion has significantly accelerated.
Compared to other platform tokens, the public chain attributes of the BNB chain inject more growth potential, thus the positive weight is higher.
It is foreseeable that the sustained strength of BNB may drive other platform tokens (such as OKB, HT, etc.) to achieve a new round of gains.
Scenario three: the rise of new coins and the birth of super projects
After Bitcoin hits a new high, the market often welcomes an altcoin season, during which the emergence of hundred-fold 'super projects' has become a historical norm.
In the last bull market: STEPN's GMT presented an impressive performance, showcasing the explosive power of GameFi.
At the beginning of this year: the concept of inscriptions was hot, and ORDI skyrocketed rapidly after being listed on Binance, repeatedly hitting highs of 100 USD.
Binance has recently favored launching low market cap projects, leaving more opportunities for the secondary market. This strategy reflects the exchange's consideration of community fund efficiency and reserves growth space for a new round of 'super projects'.
Based on historical experience, this round of the market also has the opportunity to emerge new legendary projects, especially against the backdrop of leading exchanges gradually exercising restraint on high market cap projects. To capture such opportunities, it is crucial to pay early attention to potential new coins.
Key time points: Christmas to January next year
History shows that the end of the year and the beginning of the year are periods of strong capital liquidity:
During the Christmas period, market sentiment is active, and the willingness of funds to enter increases.
In January next year, before the new leadership takes office, the uncertainty of macro policies may further stimulate capital.
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