As 2024 approaches its end, the overall trend of the cryptocurrency market is gradually becoming clear, and the next few months will be critical moments for investors. In this article, we will briefly analyze several important trends to come and how to seize market opportunities.
1. The altcoin sentiment index continues to rise, and the bull market is nearing its peak.
The altcoin sentiment index has remained above 75 for the past 5 days since December 2, indicating that market sentiment remains active, and the last phase of the bull market is approaching. Reviewing this bull market, it can be divided into three phases:
Phase One: Rise from October 2023 to March 2024;
Phase Two: Six-month adjustment from April to September 2024;
Phase Three: A rebound starting in October 2024, currently in the altcoin catch-up cycle of the third phase.
Currently, the market has entered a cycle where Bitcoin and altcoins drive each other alternately. Especially in early December, the cycles of Bitcoin and altcoins are alternating, driving the market to spiral upward. This pattern of phase-based rising indicates that, although there may be short-term fluctuations, the overall trend remains bullish.
2. The peak of the bull market is approaching, expected to occur between February and April.
For the market trends in the coming months, we maintain our previous judgment: the market is likely to peak between February and April 2024. Especially if Trump returns to power on January 20, the period around the Spring Festival may become a key moment for the peak. Even if the bull market ends, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will not decline significantly as it did in the past - large funds and institutions in the market have already allocated it as a value-preserving asset, and Bitcoin will continue to play an important role in the global financial system.
Therefore, before the bull market peak arrives, asset allocation focused on Bitcoin will become the preferred choice for preserving future capital, while altcoins may experience more severe adjustments. It is recommended that investors engage in swing trading and avoid holding too many altcoins for the long term, especially before the market peaks.
3. Bitcoin remains the core asset for large capital, while altcoins will be riskier.
In the future, Bitcoin will continue to attract the favor of institutional funds and large capital from Wall Street. Bitcoin is no longer a plaything for retail investors, but an important asset for financial institutions and national foreign exchange reserves. This means that even if the bull market ends, the price of BTC will remain relatively stable and gradually rise. In contrast, the trend of altcoins has entered a high-risk phase.
Once altcoins enter a downtrend, various institutions and speculators will frantically sell off and turn to the more stable Bitcoin. This means that once the market crashes, the risks associated with altcoins will significantly increase. Therefore, any investor holding altcoins should timely switch to Bitcoin to avoid potential risks.
4. How to conduct swing trading near the peak?
Currently, there are still 2-4 months until the market peak, and short-term swing trading can be conducted. Investors can gradually buy in during market pullbacks and sell near the peak, trying to avoid blindly chasing prices at high points. Based on market trends, operating in batches and implementing good profit-taking and stop-loss strategies is key.
For ordinary investors, the safest strategy is to 'buy low and sell high,' capturing the core part of the market's big trend. Do not try to earn excess returns from every fluctuation, as this often backfires.
5. Future Cycle: Focus on the top 100 potential altcoins.
With the maturity of the market, investment opportunities in the cryptocurrency space still exist, but we need to be more cautious. In the future cycle, new investors should focus on the top 100 potential altcoins, rather than chasing those with low market capitalization and poor liquidity. Avoid those coins that are prone to zeroing out, especially the smaller-cap altcoins.
Avoid using leveraged contracts, especially for ordinary investors, as high leverage may cause you to miss out on long-term market gains. For more capable investors, if you can accurately grasp hot sectors and act quickly, then opportunities in new coins are still worth paying attention to. However, this requires a high level of market sensitivity and operational skills.
6. Summary: The cryptocurrency market is still full of opportunities, but risks should not be ignored.
Overall, the opportunities in the cryptocurrency market remain abundant in the future, but investors need to stay calm in the final stage of the bull market. Bitcoin (BTC) will solidify its position as a major asset, while the risks associated with altcoins are increasing. In future operations, diversifying investments, focusing on core assets, and avoiding chasing prices or panic selling will be the most rational investment strategies.
The future market is still full of challenges and opportunities. If you can stick to rational investment and reasonable allocation, you will be able to ride the waves in the turbulent cryptocurrency market and achieve substantial returns.
Seize the current swing trading opportunities, grasp the cyclical trends, as future wealth belongs to those investors who dare to make the right decisions at the right time!
