The U.S. November non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, but also showed a rising unemployment rate, which could create pressure for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates at the meeting later this month.
According to analysts, the possibility of interest rate cuts will boost investment demand for Bitcoin. Although stock prices have fallen, Bitcoin may still benefit from this policy change, with experts stating that interest rate cuts could pressure the dollar and benefit assets like Bitcoin.
In November, the U.S. economy added 227,000 new jobs, exceeding expectations of 220,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale Investments, said that this jobs report reinforces the likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates at the December meeting. He commented:
"When all else is equal, reducing interest rates tends to weaken the value of the dollar and benefit other currencies, including Bitcoin."
Pandl also shared that, although the price of Bitcoin has dropped from over $100,000, Grayscale Research believes that the cryptocurrency's price increase could continue into the new year.
Pandl's prediction is echoed by many other analysts, who believe that these numbers could prompt the Federal Reserve to reconsider its interest rate policy.
Meanwhile, CME's FedWatch tool indicated a 74.5% chance that the Fed will lower interest rates by 0.25% at the December 17-18 meeting. This possibility is further supported by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's remarks in favor of rate cuts in December, emphasizing that the current monetary policy remains restrictive.
I believe that monetary policy remains restrictive. I expect interest rate cuts to continue next year until we reach a more neutral policy interest rate.
In November, the price of Bitcoin fell nearly 3% after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that the economy showed no signs of needing to rush to lower interest rates. However, analyst Jamie Coutts from Real Vision predicts that the Fed will increase the M2 money supply – a measure of total money supply in circulation – to about $20 trillion by 2025. He believes that increasing liquidity could attract $2 trillion in capital to the Bitcoin market, based on historical data showing that Bitcoin typically absorbs about 10% of the new money supply created when M2 rises.
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