Absolute Explosion! Tonight's Non-Farm Payroll Data Will Determine Market Movements!

The Non-Farm Payroll data at 21:30. Goldman Sachs believes that the Non-Farm Employment Report to be released on Friday is almost certainly an event that will impact market direction, and investors can trade based on the different outcomes that may arise.

The November Non-Farm Employment Report will be the last important economic data of the year, which could determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at its meeting on December 17-18.

Even though there was some anxiety last month, investors are currently confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points this month. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the market believes there is about a 75% chance of a rate cut in December, and Fed officials have also made some dovish or hawkish comments in recent days. However, if an unexpectedly hot number appears in Friday's Non-Farm report, it could jeopardize these expectations for easing policies and potentially disrupt the stock market.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect that the U.S. economy will add 214,000 jobs in November.

John Flood, the head of U.S. Equity Sales Trading at Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, stated in a report on Tuesday: "I believe the sweet spot for Non-Farm Payrolls in the stock market is between 150,000 and 200,000. The market is ready for a significant rebound in Non-Farm data after the poor performance in October, as the adverse effects of those hurricanes and strikes are now behind us."

He continued: "The stock market does not want to see an increase in Non-Farm Payrolls above 275,000, as unexpectedly strong data would provide Powell and his team the flexibility to remain on hold at the December meeting (and potentially lead them to take a wait-and-see approach for 2025 as well)."

"Yes, we are temporarily back to a setting where bad data (but not too bad) is actually beneficial for the stock market," Goldman Sachs noted. The firm analyzed six potential trading scenarios that could unfold after the Non-Farm report is released on Friday. Here are the possible outcomes: #非农数据