People only believe what they see, but this world exists because we believe it first.
New retail investors know nothing about the bull market, and the same goes for the bear market. In a bull market, they can’t imagine the peak, and in a bear market, they can’t envision the bottom. In the bull market, they only dare to think of halfway up the mountain, or even just at their ankles. When the bear market reaches their shoulders, they think they’ve hit the bottom, not realizing it could be halved again.
Only by experiencing several rounds of bull and bear markets, constantly summarizing, reflecting, and reviewing, can one understand this market, recognize which are overvalued, which are undervalued, which are temporarily overvalued, but long-term promising, etc.
More importantly, it is to perceive the current stage of the market, which is the most challenging part. It is like learning a language; the hardest part is developing a sense of language, and that sense is an invisible thing, which is the most valuable thing.
Today is December 6, 2024. The bull market is still in the early stage where market makers are promoting and retail investors are lifting the sedan chair. To be precise, we are now at the end of the bear market and the beginning of the bull market. There is an urgent need for new topics, and this year the concepts of AI, RWA, Layer 1, Layer 2, meme, liquidity staking, gaming, web 3.0, etc. will continue to explode. There will definitely be hundred-fold and even thousand-fold coins among them.
By mid-2025, most currencies will have the opportunity to break previous highs, increasing by ten to twenty times. At this point, we will enter the mid-phase, and there will be a halving during the mid-bull market, causing retail investors' profits to shrink significantly. From both a technical and market sentiment perspective, it will look like the beginning of a bear market. At this time, retail investors will rush to exit because they feel that regardless of how much they earn, they prefer to cash out. If you think this is the end, you are too naive. Retail investors have made money and exited; where will the market makers go to cry? At this time, there will be several months of fluctuations, giving time for all retail investors to exit.
At the end of the year, there will be another wave of rebound, and some currencies will still break through previous highs. There will still be a 5-10 times increase from the low point, and at that time, the retail investors who exited early will definitely rush back in, dreaming of 'to the moon', only to end up trapped at the peak. What awaits them is a long bear market for years, ultimately chasing highs and cutting losses, playing away all their money, and then beginning to despair about this market. Some will leave cursing because they are out of money, thinking it is a scam, not realizing that it is their own greed and lack of understanding that led to the tragedy. Some will rush back in during the next bull market, replaying history. They are a group of gamblers, forever refusing to learn and reflect, paying attention to price fluctuations like headless flies, ultimately discarded by the times, becoming just a speck of dust in the torrent. New retail investors can never make money and leave this market alive during a bull market.
I put the future plot here, but I believe no one can fully adhere to the rules.
Here is my prediction for the peak of the bull market in 2025. I will be clearing out within the following range, but it is not absolute. There will definitely be undervalued currencies, and there will definitely be overvalued currencies. Specific adjustments will be made according to the development of the bull market. Overall, it is relatively conservative, so please do not blindly follow the trend.
Unit (USD)
1.btc 150,000-200,000
2.eth 80,000-150,000
3.bnb 2000-4000
4.sol 400-700
5.xrp 3
6.doge 1
7.ada 2-4
8.trx 0.5-1
9.shib 0.0001-0.0002
10.avax 100-200
11.dot 25-50
12.link 40-100
13.bch 1000-2000
14.near 20-50
15.uni 40-80
16.matic 3-6
17.ltc 300-500
18.pepe 0.00005-0.0001
19.icp 50-90
20.etc 100-200
21. apt 40-80
22.hbar 0.3-0.5
23.rndr 20-50
24.atom 30-50
25.xlm 0.8-1
26.arb 5-10
27.fil 20-40
28.stx 7-15
29.imx 6-13
30.sui 5-10
31.mkr 4000-8000
32.vet 0.1-0.2
33.grt 1-2
34.op 5-10
35.inj 50-100
36.tao 500-1000
37.ldo 5-10
38.ar 100-200
39.ftm 2-4
40.wif 5-10
41.floki 0.0005-0.001
42.theta 5-10
43.not 0.05-0.1
44.jasmy 0.1-0.2
45.rune 10-20
46.bonk 0.0001-0.0002
47.fet 5-10
48.aave 400-800
49.tia 40-80
50.pyth 1-2