Yesterday, Bitcoin broke the historic $100,000 barrier, reaching over $104,000. The market was in a frenzy, believing that an epic bull market was about to arrive. However, it didn't even last 24 hours. While everyone was asleep, Bitcoin plummeted, briefly falling below $90,000, with a daily drop exceeding 10%. It is currently at $98,111.
In the last 24 hours, a total of 208,785 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $1.095 billion. The liquidation volume set a record, exceeding the 900 million on the 8th, possibly the highest in the history of the crypto market.
If contract users are using high leverage, they may have already been liquidated in their sleep. Due to the recent rise, it made everyone let their guard down, long positions with no protection, and many did not set stop losses. As a result, within a day, Bitcoin reached the 90,000 range again, and long positions were eventually liquidated.
I personally believe the specific reasons for the decline are:
1. Market needed clearing, retracement, reasonable pullback.
Previously, I actually thought about the impact on altcoins after Bitcoin broke 100,000. I believe that the later Bitcoin breaks 100,000, the more beneficial it is for altcoins. Even a slight decline and sideways movement of Bitcoin is better than a breakout.
So after Bitcoin broke 100,000 yesterday, I don't think it's a good sign, and I took some small profit as well. I reminded everyone in yesterday's article (What coins to buy after Bitcoin hits 100,000? The real 100x coins for 2025, only these 2!) Although based on the overall sentiment and the K-line before yesterday, there wasn't a top structure, I still made the decision to reduce my holdings.
2. The resurgence of fear of heights.
Some friends may ask why there was no fear of heights when Bitcoin rose from $73,000 to $99,900, and why there is now. Because when it first reached $99,900, people were still immersed in the FOMO feelings of Trump's election. However, as the election has been almost a month ago, the FOMO sentiment has gradually dissipated. The reason it hovered around $95,000 last week is this. There was also panic when it broke the previous high after the ETF approval. Initially, I also thought whether there would be fear of heights after breaking $100,000, but I was too immersed in the joy of breaking $100,000 and ignored the risks. This is certainly worth reflecting on.
3. The transfer of over 20,000 Bitcoins from Mentougou.
This is last night's news, and I personally think it's not very reliable. The impact of Mentougou has long passed. The last 20,000 coins are not enough for the ETF to consume in three days, and Mentougou is just a repayment and won't cause concentrated selling.
4. Tonight's non-farm payroll data
Tonight, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for November will be released, with the unemployment rate and wage levels being data that the world is paying attention to. A low unemployment rate and high wages indicate a strong U.S. economy but may reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December. Conversely, a high unemployment rate and low wages, which is the current market expectation, may increase the probability of a rate cut but also suggest that the U.S. economy may not be as stable as previously thought. Especially if the unemployment rate increases, it may trigger a new round of market worries about economic recession. Therefore, it cannot be excluded as a reason for a pullback.
Overall, the decline of Bitcoin is reasonable.
There is no market that only rises and does not fall. In one day, it fell by 15,000 points, but today it also rose nearly 8,000 points at its highest. Currently, the Bitcoin price, compared to yesterday's low, can only be considered a slight decline.
Lastly, let’s talk about tonight's non-farm payroll prediction:
Last night in the early hours, there was a big move. It’s generally impossible to have another consecutive big move tonight. Otherwise, it would turn into a pump-and-dump scheme. The medium and small indicators need to be repaired. Currently, the repairs are happening quickly. I bet that not only will there not be another big move tonight, but there will also be a significant surge.
If the non-farm data is negative, then there won't be a rate cut this month, and the trend could turn bearish. Clearly, it seems unlikely right now. So tonight, just buy on dips as usual. I'll update the low points for buying in the group later. Take profit of 1/2-2/3 at the target profit point during the daytime rebound, and keep the larger profitable positions.
#加密沙皇 #比特币插针90.5K #历史见证者打卡 #DOGE狂潮 #美国合规概念币走扬 $BTC