Today, December 5, 2024, at 10:42 Beijing time, Bitcoin broke through the 100,000 US dollar mark. I believe everyone should have been flooded with news. It reached a high of around 10.4. We have always said that 100,000 is a big mark, because after all, it is a large integer mark, and there will be many short orders ambushed here, but in the first impact of 99999, it immediately broke through the 100,000 US dollar mark after 5 minutes, without any resistance. Once it breaks through 100,000, the follow-up will be the stars and the sea, without any resistance.
Remember what we said in the market analysis on November 14, this round will be a super-institutional + government bull! Because this morning, in addition to Trump, another national leader Putin announced his embrace of Bitcoin, because on Wednesday, Trump said that the United States and its allies had frozen about $300 billion worth of Russian foreign exchange reserves, and the G7 was discussing how to use these funds to support Ukraine's strategy, which made Putin very annoyed. Putin said that the confiscation of its reserves was not conducive to the reputation of the US dollar and the status of the US dollar as the primary reserve asset of the central bank, and said that countries have turned to cryptocurrencies as an alternative. And Putin made it clear that no one can ban Bitcoin!
The second superpower, Russia, has also begun to support Bitcoin. We must know that previously the U.S. had a military arms race with the Soviet Union. If both start to seize Bitcoin as a super foreign exchange reserve, this round of bull market will become super interesting. Just imagine two superpowers frantically buying Bitcoin; how high will Bitcoin soar!!!
The second event is the South Korean martial law incident on Wednesday. We talked about it yesterday, roughly what happened; anyway, it's a coup. You can search for the specifics on Baidu. This event caused a flash crash of Bitcoin on South Korea's largest cryptocurrency exchange, UPBIT, dropping to over 60,000. However, I saw that the lowest on UPBIT was 88,000, but major exchanges like Binance didn't reach that low, with a minimum of only 93,000. Previously, 88,000 was actually a good buy zone, but it got pushed back to position by the South Korean market, which allowed them to pick up a big bargain.
Liquidation Heatmap (Long/Short Ratio)
Now let's look at the current long-short ratio. We can see the liquidation heatmap on Binance. The bulls are currently too strong, almost overwhelming, with only about 10% of the bears. The liquidation heatmap for these bulls is actually at the position of 94,000, meaning that a pullback to 94,000 could clear at least 80% of the bulls, while the midpoint would clear 50% of the bulls, at around 96,000. (Of course, this is on a daily level)
BTC ETF
This week, the net inflow of the ETF is 24,000 bitcoins, with this week's ETF net inflow still around 1-1.3 billion, showing no decline. Currently, the main force is still BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which has managed assets exceeding 50 billion dollars, achieving this milestone in just 228 days, more than five times faster than any other ETF in history.
The purchasing power of the government bull
As mentioned above, this round will be a government bull market. Previously, we estimated that the U.S. government's purchasing power is about to buy 1 million bitcoins. Now that Russia has made its voice heard, if Putin converts the current foreign exchange reserves into Bitcoin (according to investigations, Russia has $600 billion in dollar reserves, of which $300 billion is frozen) and converts this $600 billion into Bitcoin (calculated at $100,000), Russia will purchase 6 million bitcoins.
What does this mean? Currently, the circulating supply of Bitcoin is probably around 6-8 million. If Emperor Putin gets really angry and actually converts to Bitcoin, it will clear out the market! So when I said 1.5 million dollars, you might think it's very high, but if these two giants really go at it, that price might not hold.
Short-term and long-term expectations (Candlestick Chart)
From the monthly chart in the first image, looking at the range from 15,000 to 73,000, there is a chance to aim for the Fibonacci 2.618 zone, which is 160,000. This is our long-term expectation.
So how should we operate in the short term? From the 1-hour chart, the lowest point is 90,832 to the position of 104,000, with the pullback range being
0.618, this line is positioned around 97,000-100,000. From the 4-hour chart, this range is the box shown in the diagram below, in the range of 95,800-99,000. Therefore, the overlapping ranges create a very good space for buying long positions. Please pay attention to risk control.
In conclusion, after this round of Bitcoin's surge, breaking through the 100,000 barrier, various news will compete to report, attracting more retail investors. As I have often mentioned in the community, in the future, you will see Bitcoin rising by 15%-20% in a day, which means a daily increase of 20,000 dollars is possible. Don't think 160,000 is far or high; it may just happen in an instant. Currently, the market has entered a new cycle, with Bitcoin sucking liquidity while other altcoins do not rise. Once Bitcoin reaches a certain position, altcoins will still explode. Our strategy this round is very good; we have almost ambushed all the major altcoin surges, especially for some high-rated coins, which we have all positioned well.
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$BTC #btc
