Table of contents:
6. BTC contract liquidation chart, risk control position reference;
7. The cottage index continues to rebound, and the cottage season is approaching the risk area;
8. Token large amount unlocking data preview.
9. Interpretation of fundamental hot spots: Non-farm super week is coming, and Federal Reserve officials will speak intensively.
6. BTC contract liquidation chart, risk control position reference
According to the latest contract data, if the BTC price breaks through $98,000, short orders worth $1.345 billion will be liquidated;
If the BTC price falls below $94,000, long orders worth $10.8 will be liquidated.
7. The copycat index continues to rebound, and the copycat season is approaching the risk area.
The logic of the altcoin index is that if 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have outperformed BTC over the past 90 days, it's considered altcoin season; it is currently at 80, nearing the risk zone, with the previous peak at 85 and the one before that reaching 98.
The top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have seen XLM rise approximately 500% over the last three months, ranking first earlier; from early August, the maximum increase was 740%. HBAR has today risen to the top in terms of increase. Recently, established mainstream coins have performed well, with XRP returning to the third-largest market cap yesterday, continuing to rise to $2.87+ in the evening, surpassing SOL. XRP is also the older brother of XLM, and its overall increase ranks among the top three.
8. Token large unlock data forecast:
Data shows that tokens such as TAIKO, ADA, and ENA will experience large unlocks next week, including:
Taiko (TAIKO) will unlock approximately 9.29 million tokens at 8:00 PM Singapore time on December 5, which is 11.38% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $20.9 million;
Cardano (ADA) will unlock approximately 18.53 million tokens at 8:00 AM Singapore time on December 6, which is 0.05% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $19.8 million;
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens at 3:00 PM Singapore time on December 4, which is 0.45% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $10.5 million.
This week, focus on these tokens due to the negative effects of unlocking; avoid spot trading and seek short selling opportunities in contracts. Among them, TAIKO has a significant proportion and scale of unlocking, warranting extra attention.
9. Hotspot interpretation: Non-farm super week is approaching, with intensive speeches from Fed officials.
The recently concluded U.S. election month has seen Trump's return to the White House being viewed as a key factor driving global market trends. The S&P 500 index has risen over 25% in the past 11 months, with the 'Trump trade' boosting the U.S. stock market.
This week marks the arrival of 'Super Week', where U.S. labor market data, especially Friday's non-farm payroll report, will significantly impact the Fed's interest rate cut plans, and numerous Fed officials will also speak. In recent weeks, investors have been focused on Trump's economic policies and changing expectations for Fed rate cuts. Recently, expectations for a December rate cut have warmed up, but the path to long-term easing looks challenging. The October non-farm payroll numbers saw a sharp drop, raising concerns about the deterioration of the job market. The industry expects an addition of 195,000 non-farm jobs in November, but the unemployment rate could rise to 4.2%. Employment data can more clearly reflect fundamental trends, and there are many debates in the market about the Fed's interest rate path. In the coming week, speeches from Fed officials will be frequent, with Powell's remarks drawing particular attention. Most officials believe that a rapid pace of rate cuts is hard to sustain, and Powell has previously stated that there is no need to rush into rate cuts. Different institutions and analysts have varying expectations for the Fed's rate cuts.
We believe the current market is influenced by both political and economic factors. The potential policy impacts of Trump have drawn market attention, while the rise in U.S. stocks reflects investor optimism. However, labor market data has become the focal point due to its direct connection to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The performance of the non-farm payroll report will determine the likelihood and pace of Fed interest rate cuts. The recent warming of expectations for a rate cut in December, alongside a long-term cautious stance, reflects the market's complex assessment of short-term economic stimulus and long-term inflation risks. The uncertainty surrounding employment data has heightened market tension, and the potential rise in the unemployment rate casts a shadow over economic prospects. The speeches and attitudes of Federal Reserve officials will play an important guiding role in market expectations. Discrepancies among different institutions and analysts indicate significant uncertainty regarding the future economic trajectory and policy direction.
The cryptocurrency market will also be deeply affected by macroeconomic data and monetary policy. If the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts warm up, it may lead to more funds flowing out of traditional financial markets in search of higher-yield investment opportunities. Some funds may flow into the cryptocurrency market, driving cryptocurrency prices up, as rate cuts usually increase market liquidity. However, if the Fed's path to long-term easing proves to be difficult, this may suppress large-scale inflows into the cryptocurrency market, as investors may adopt a cautious attitude towards the overall financial market's expansion and liquidity. The performance of employment data will also indirectly influence the cryptocurrency market. Good employment data may enhance market confidence in the economy, reducing demand for risk assets (including cryptocurrencies); whereas poor employment data may trigger concerns about economic recession, prompting investors to seek alternative assets like cryptocurrencies as a hedge or store of value. However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market also has its own independent operating logic, and its prices are more significantly influenced by unique factors such as technological development, regulatory policies, and market sentiment. The correlation with traditional financial markets is not absolutely direct and linear, so these influences may be indirect and carry a degree of uncertainty.
Text by: Old Li Mortar
