$BTC could face a correction of 10% to 15% (between $87k and $84k) according to analyses that point to a correlation between the price of the cryptocurrency and the global M2 index, which measures the supply of money in circulation in the economy. This relationship has an average lag of 70 days (10-week theory), which means that fluctuations in M2 tend to impact the price of Bitcoin after this period. Since September 2023, Bitcoin has closely followed the variations in M2, and, with the index going through a period of deflation in the last two months, the price of the cryptocurrency could reflect this trend with a correction of between 20% and 25%
This movement would be a natural response to the reduction in global liquidity, reinforcing Bitcoin's sensitivity to money market conditions; Although Bitcoin has shown moments of decoupling from the global financial market, such as between 2022 and 2023 due to specific events such as the collapse of FTX and the drop in interest in digital assets, structural factors can help mitigate potential declines. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs, increased buying pressure from large corporations and greater institutional adoption are elements that can support the price of the cryptocurrency, even in the face of a reduction in global liquidity.