This week, the financial market officially enters a compact rhythm of 'significant events every day', especially with the non-farm payroll data set to be released on Friday, which has attracted the attention of global investors. Based on historical experience, the market often shows sensitive reactions in the week leading up to the release of non-farm data on Friday, indicating that market sentiment fluctuations will be particularly intense this week.
During this data-intensive release period, the dynamics of the Federal Reserve cannot be overlooked. Multiple senior officials of the Federal Reserve, including Chairman Powell, will successively deliver speeches, which is particularly crucial against the complex backdrop of current expectations for the Fed rate cuts 'strengthening in the near term and weakening in the long term'.
The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate until December is 34.0%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 66.0%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate until January next year is 25.2%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 57.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 16.9%$BTC
