Ethereum (ETH) has made a significant breakthrough by surpassing a long-term resistance level that previously caused its price to drop sharply during the bear market of 2022. This development is considered a major turning point, marking the end of a three-year accumulation phase and opening up potential for a strong bull cycle.
Technical analysis and price forecast
1. The long-term symmetrical triangle has been broken.
• ETH has surpassed the resistance level of $3,800, completing a symmetrical triangle pattern on the weekly chart.
• The current price is around $3,669, up 47% just in November.
• Analyst Quinten Francois calls this the awakening of Ethereum after a period of 'hibernation'.
2. 'Cup and Handle' pattern
• Venturefounder believes that ETH is forming a complete 'Cup and Handle' pattern.
• If the level of $3,800 becomes strong support, the next price target could reach from $5,349 to $7,238 by the end of Q1/2025. This represents an increase of nearly 97% compared to the current price.
3. Potential cycle peak
• According to Titan of Crypto, if history repeats itself, ETH could peak in this cycle at $7,800 to $9,900.
• With Fibonacci levels, the target of $10,000 is not impossible in this cycle.
Support factors
1. Institutional cash flow and whale accumulation
• Ethereum ETFs: ETH ETF funds have recorded a record cash flow, with over $332.9 million in just one day, in which iShares Ethereum (BlackRock) and Fidelity contributed the majority.
• Whale activity: Whales holding between 100,000 and 1 million ETH have purchased an additional 280,000 ETH (approximately $1 billion) in the last four days.
2. High open interest
• ETH futures on CME reached the highest open interest ever ($2.8 billion).
• Future premium increased by 14%, reflecting the optimistic sentiment of investors.
3. Macroeconomic support factors
• The DXY index (Dollar Index) remains an important factor. If the US dollar weakens, this could act as a catalyst for an ETH price explosion.
Conclusion
With strong technical momentum, support from institutional cash flows, and positive macro trends, Ethereum is in a favorable position to continue its upward trend. However, external factors such as the global economic situation and dollar strength need to be closely monitored.
Short-term price targets ($5,349 - $7,238) and long-term ($7,800 - $10,000) are gradually becoming a reality, especially if the $3,800 threshold is solidified as strong support. This could be a good opportunity for medium and long-term investors.
