Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy say they can cut $2 trillion, but here’s the catch: D.O.G.E. has no real power. It’s a private advisory group that can only make recommendations that Congress may or may not consider.
Add to that the scale of the federal spending and the politics surrounding it, and D.O.G.E. is shaping up to be Elon’s most questionable project to date. Let’s break down why this whole thing looks like a fiery rocket crash.
Government spending is too big to cut
The U.S. budget is dominated by mandatory spending, which accounts for about three-quarters of federal spending. This category is not debated by Congress each year. It includes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest payments on the federal debt. Last year, these costs alone totaled $4.89 trillion.
Social Security costs $1.45 trillion. Medicare and Medicaid combined cost $1.49 trillion. These programs aren't just big; they're untouchable. Trump himself has promised to protect Social Security and Medicare.
That makes Medicaid a potential target, but cutting it isn’t as simple as just crunching numbers on a spreadsheet. According to the CBO, 56% of Medicaid benefits in 2024 will go to the elderly, blind, and disabled. Many nursing homes rely heavily on Medicaid payments to stay afloat.
Any attempt to cut benefits risks a political backlash. And if we’re honest, no one in Washington wants to explain why she can’t pay her nursing home bills anymore. Interest payments are another black hole for cash.
The U.S. government spent $950 billion last year just on interest payments on its $33 trillion debt. That’s nearly the entire defense budget. With rising interest rates, that cost is expected to double over the next decade. D.O.G.E. can’t just snap its fingers and fix that.
Discretionary spending won't save the situation
So what else is there to cut? Discretionary spending. This is the money Congress votes to approve each year, and it’s divided into two categories: defense and non-defense programs. Last year, defense spending hit $850 billion. That money funds everything from buying aircraft carriers to feeding 1.4 million active-duty troops. Good luck convincing Congress to cut defense spending in an era of heightened global tensions.
Non-defense discretionary spending includes everything else: NASA, housing programs, education subsidies, farm subsidies—you name it. The category totaled $950 billion last year. Critics often target these programs when calling for budget cuts.
But here’s the thing. All discretionary spending combined only makes up 14 percent of the total budget. Even if D.O.G.E. eliminated every non-defense program, it wouldn’t be able to cut $2 trillion.
Federal workers are another target. Federal employee salaries and benefits cost $384 billion last year, according to the White House Office of Management and Budget. There are about 2.3 million civilian employees working for the executive branch, not counting postal workers.
One-fifth of them work for the Department of Veterans Affairs. Add in the military, and the total payroll comes to $584 billion. The job cuts sound great until you realize they only scratch the surface of the deficit.
Debt is the real problem
Let's talk about the elephant in the room: debt. Total federal revenue, or the amount the government took in in taxes last year, was $4.92 trillion. That's $1.83 trillion less than what the government spent. That gap (the budget deficit) accounts for 6.4% of U.S. GDP.
And this is not a new problem. During the pandemic, the deficit-to-GDP ratio has reached 15%. Traditionally, deficits of this magnitude only occur during crises like World War II or a major economic recession.
The federal government borrows money to cover these deficits. Over time, that borrowing adds up. The United States currently has a total debt of $33 trillion. The CBO projects that mandatory spending will increase by more than $2 trillion over the next decade, while interest payments will double.
These trends make it nearly impossible for D.O.G.E. to make meaningful cuts without addressing its underlying debt problem.
Elon and Vivek Ramaswamy are unconventional leaders
Then there’s the question of leadership. Elon is a tech genius, but running an effective government program is another matter entirely. He’s busy managing Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, and other projects. How much time can he realistically devote to D.O.G.E.?
Ramaswamy, meanwhile, is known for his biotech background and libertarian politics. Neither has significant experience navigating the federal budget or the complexities of government programs. Critics say their success in the private sector does not necessarily translate to public sector expertise. The federal budget is a web of entrenched rules, obligations, and vested interests.
Public perception matters. If people don’t take D.O.G.E seriously, Congress won’t either. And so far, the response has been lukewarm. Many see D.O.G.E as a vanity project by Elon and Ramaswamy rather than a genuine attempt to address the deficit. Ultimately, D.O.G.E faces an uphill battle on all fronts.
