At 05:00 Beijing time, global markets closed with most experiencing an upward trend. $BTC $ETH
1. Although U.S. stock markets were only open for half a trading day on Friday, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices still reached historic highs. Prior to this, the Chinese and European stock markets also closed higher, as Trump's tariff threats have dissipated.
2. Gold has risen, closing at $2650, a level analysts see as the 'watershed' for bulls and bears, so next week will still be a period of exploration in the dark. In the short term, gold prices face both upward and downward pressures.
* According to the latest survey, Wall Street analysts remain divided between optimistic and cautious views, with 43% expecting gold prices to rise in the coming week, while 50% expect gold prices to further consolidate.
3. The dollar has fallen for five consecutive trading days, marking the largest weekly decline since August. The reasons for the dollar's decline are complex; it remains to be seen whether it is due to month-end fund flows or represents the 'new dollar policy' of the Trump administration. Answers will come next week.
4. U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.19%. Many are unaware that the current rally in the U.S. stock market is due to a decline in Treasury yields. After briefly touching 4.5% on November 15, the 10-year Treasury yield fell, leading to a temporary bottoming out in the U.S. stock market the following trading day (after a preceding correction).
Therefore, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will be the focus going forward; if their downward trend continues, most global markets may rise further.
Traders are waiting for new information to determine the next steps for the market:
· First, the U.S. non-farm payroll report for November will be released next Friday. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in December and pause rate cuts in January next year. If this report is strong, it could likely lead the Fed to pause rate cuts in December and push the next rate cut to January, catching people off guard.
· Second, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech (Beijing time next Thursday at 02:45) and the timing of his speech (the day before the non-farm report, right after he sees the fresh data) indicates his intention—leaking information to allow the market to digest the non-farm data. Powell's speech may touch on his views regarding the job market, and even a familiar statement could be 'some sort of hint.'
Overall, there is still a lack of visibility; the market is navigating under a cloudy sky using the stars as a guide. #比特币打破感恩节魔咒 #山寨币走势展望 #市场回暖新机遇 #美国续请失业金人数创三年新高 #美PCE年率创半年来最大增幅
