Looking at the historical trend of Bitcoin breaking new highs and entering the adjustment phase, Ethereum usually completes a strong rally to catch up for a period of time. Previously, Ethereum was weak, but its current trend is still strong. With the U.S. stock market opening tonight, Bitcoin should be able to push up a bit more, but it is also likely difficult to break through the 100,000 mark. The upper pressure is around the opening price of this week, near 98,000. Tomorrow is the weekend, and some altcoins that need to catch up are expected to perform tomorrow. Pay close attention to projects and sectors that have not yet caught up! For example, BNB and ORDI.
Answering the two questions that the market is most concerned about: when will this round of BTC peak? When will the altcoin season explode? First, let's look at the price trends of BTC in the past few cycles, which are very similar to previous bull markets (2012, 2016, and 2020). Up to now, there are no signs indicating that the outcome of the final stage will be different from previous cycles; history is always strikingly similar! Based on this data, we can judge: we are currently in the fourth stage of this bull market - the prosperity phase. This occurs about 183 days after the Bitcoin halving, and it is also the early stage of the craziest prosperity phase. Looking at the data from the past two cycles, we can speculate: the top of this bull market is very likely to occur in September/October 2025. The only result from calculating the bull top from the previous bottom to the top is March 2025. The actual timing of the bull top will become clearer as it approaches, so we need to track whether the rally in the first quarter of next year stagnates or continues to gain momentum. However, let’s boldly speculate as well. If BTC is expected to reach its cycle top around September or October next year, when will the altcoin season explode? Currently, in this phase, although some strong altcoins have started to perform, a crazy altcoin explosion like in 2021 has not yet arrived.
This is because we have just passed the 'BTC leading phase' of this cycle, where BTC's price rise has absorbed most of the liquidity.
Before BTC's momentum shifts, altcoins will not truly rebound, and now the good show is just beginning!
BTC's dominance has shown signs of a turning point as it continues to rise.
When BTC's dominance is broken, the real altcoin season will ignite.
So we have seen the general rise in the altcoin market these days, even though Bitcoin is adjusting at a high level. The current round, driven by Trump's economy, has seen BTC perform excellently, which is actually a very healthy situation.
We need a strong BTC to lay the foundation for a sustainable altcoin rebound. The higher Bitcoin rises, the greater the subsequent capital flow towards altcoins will be.
In the previous round, during a similar phase in the market, BTC continued to outperform the market until the end of 2020, and it was only after the 2021 halving that altcoins finally became the focus.
If the same pattern repeats, this round may turn into a real altcoin season in early 2025.
From the K-line chart showing the total market value of altcoins excluding the top 10 as a percentage of Bitcoin's market value, we can see that altcoins have just started to bottom and reverse. Currently, the altcoin speculation index is 40%, while the last two bull tops reached over 90%.
Therefore, altcoins still have a significant room for price increase that has not yet been realized!
The reason a full altcoin market will not start yet is that overall users still exhibit representational bias as described in behavioral economics, and they need time to gradually let go. Additionally, in terms of funds, the main capital in the second phase comes from those who missed the initial rally. Therefore, overall, it is relatively difficult for the market to start a full altcoin market. Moreover, many altcoins have a lot of trapped positions, meaning that at key levels, most altcoins will rise to a certain point and then enter a period of consolidation. So, the situation in the second phase is: a few leading coins surge (over 10 times), a small proportion of altcoins can still perform well (over 2 times), and most altcoins experience a general rise, with a certain proportion of altcoins not performing.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes released this week showed that more officials support gradual interest rate cuts. This means that if inflation shows signs of resurgence, they will pause rate cuts for one or two times.
It can be seen that the Federal Reserve has actually become somewhat more hawkish. However, under the current high-interest rate environment, the probability of inflation rising is not high. Therefore, there isn't much concern about this situation.
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates at the next meeting on December 19 is still quite high at 61.3%, but a few weeks ago this data was over 80%, so the interest rate market is still somewhat worried. However, I personally have full confidence in the rate cut in December, and at that time, the crypto market will also start a new round of upward momentum. Let's wait and see.
