After a wave of pullbacks and rebounds this week, the shorts finally took action. Although there was no liquidity on Thanksgiving Thursday, the futures market was very active;
A large number of short orders entered the market in the pullback after the price rebounded to 97,000, and the liquidation price was concentrated around the 100,000 range. Needless to say, everyone knows what this means, right?
If the reason why it couldn't reach 100,000 before was because the short fuel was not enough, then now it is obviously enough!
Next, let's see whether the US dollar funds will rush to 100,000 with spot buying orders and clear these short liquidity during the short opening time on Friday night (closing 3 hours earlier than usual); Although this pile of liquidity looks attractive, you still have to be careful that the price does not clear because the spot selling pressure starts to fall. There have been precedents before, such as the short liquidity near 70,000 is accumulated in this way; After all, the current funding rate is not low, which means that the opening records of these short orders may also be large funds or main forces; The decision-making power should be in the hands of the spot market. If you buy a lot tonight, you can easily break 100,000. If you ship a lot tonight, then the liquidity here will remain for a long time; Overall, I think the former is more likely, and there is nothing wrong with short-term longs! But it is not very realistic to expect the price to continue to rise after breaking 100,000. At present, I expect it to end at 105,000. It is hard to say whether it will end;
In a word: Friday may rise (60%) or fall (30%), and it is not ruled out that it will go sideways (10%). Just do it according to the probability expectation;