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"The God of Wheat Speaks" Looking at the Future of the Cryptocurrency World from the Collapse of Maotai
This year, Maotai has collapsed. Both stock prices and liquor prices have fallen. Today, looking at Pinduoduo's 10 billion subsidies, the bulk price of Feitian Maotai once exceeded 2100 yuan/bottle, while the original box price is about 2300 yuan/bottle. From around 3000 at the beginning of the year, it has dropped nearly a thousand, a drop of one-third; next year you will see Maotai at 1499.
The collapse of Maotai's faith has three factors:
First is the collapse of the real estate market. There is an old saying, "Cigarettes build bridges, liquor paves the way." In the past, real estate projects were an important area for consuming Maotai liquor. Real estate affects the development of hundreds of industries; if fewer houses are built, there will be no consumption of Maotai.
Second is the game between Maotai Group and its distributors. Previously, most of Maotai's profits went to the distributors. The factory price of Maotai is 969 yuan, and then the manufacturer's suggested retail price is 1499 yuan/bottle. Now, Maotai is opening its own channels and seeing profits soar, which is actually akin to killing the goose that lays the golden eggs. The distributor channels are Maotai's moat and foundation; if the channels are destroyed, Maotai will undoubtedly collapse.
Third is the difficulty in distinguishing real from fake Maotai liquor. The incident of three sheep selling fake liquor merely acted as a catalyst, making the public aware that the market is filled with various counterfeit liquors like needle hole liquor and拔头酒, and even official testing agencies cannot detect them, making it very hard for the public to defend their rights. As a high-end luxury liquor in China, it’s shocking that the official channels are unreliable, with ninety percent of the circulating market being fake liquor, and platforms like Douyin and Pinduoduo mix real and fake products.
During a market downturn, previously stable assets like Prado, Rolex, Maotai, and Pianzihuang will not maintain their value. The added value attached to these prices is just a bubble. When various reasons lead to the bubble being popped, the myth of Maotai liquor will naturally be shattered.
Looking at the cryptocurrency world, the same logic applies. The deities of the last cycle: Ethereum, ETH. It won’t go to zero; ten or twenty years from now, there will still be Ethereum. It's hard to say. In my understanding, there are only two types of cryptocurrencies in the world: Bitcoin and shanzhai (counterfeit). Bitcoin is the only true god in the cryptocurrency world. Other coins, including what you consider valuable like ETH, Sol, etc., will disappear into the annals of history. Please protect your Bitcoin well, and don’t be scammed out of it.
Follow the God of Wheat to avoid getting lost, embrace memes and live in the palace. #市场波动，加仓还是观望？ #XRP市场价格动向
