ETH

Macroeconomic

1. Bitcoin spot ETF has experienced net outflows for the first time after five consecutive days of net inflows, with psychological pressure around the 100,000 mark and profit-taking occurring.

2. Liquidation data shows a major long position being liquidated, the short-term long-short rhythm is beginning to shift.

3. Glassnode: The monthly selling volume of long-term held Bitcoin has reached the highest level since April—bearish.

Technical Analysis

1. ETH reached a high of around 3540 yesterday, this position is near the resistance of the descending trendline + X-line resonance, with a long upper shadow candlestick, leaning towards a shooting star, short-term attention to the emerging phase top.

2. Although the volume has increased, it is contrary to the price increase.

3. In terms of indicators, both MACD and KD have shown divergence, the former forming a death cross—short-term leaning towards a correction.

4. The 4-hour K-line pattern shows a hanging man + engulfing bearish—top signal.

5. Support situation

(1) Near the middle track of the channel + lower Bollinger Band + fibo 0.236

(2) Concentrated chip area + EMA moving average + fibo 0.382

6. In terms of indicators

(1) MACD triple divergence and forming a death cross

(2) RSI and KD both showing top divergence + death cross.

Trading Strategy

Short Position: Short near 3450—3550, average price 3500, stop loss 3650, take profit 3300—3150—3000 (swing short position).

Long Position: Layout spot between 3200—3000, average price 3100, take profit around 3300—3500—3700 (swing long position)—long-term focus.

The above views are for reference only, trading risks are borne by oneself, pay attention to position and risk control.