First stage: accumulation phase.
The accumulation stage is where the market currently stands, and it is also the stage we have been in for the past year. After the panic of the Terra collapse, FTX collapse, and USDC de-pegging, the cryptocurrency market hit bottom.
The most difficult stage for the market has passed (unless a major crisis affecting the entire industry occurs with USDC or Tether).
Currently, the market fluctuates around the existing prices. Major industry news has little effect on the market (for example, PayPal launching a stablecoin). Now, off-market funds are not injecting new liquidity into the crypto space; on-market funds are competing with each other, and various altcoin sectors are mutually affected by capital rotation.
We are currently in the accumulation phase. We can start allocating funds in the market to profit during the bull market.
Operation advice:
Look for quality projects. Find projects that you think can explode in the upcoming bull market. Quality projects mainly have the following characteristics: high product/market fit, competitive advantage over similar products, an active project team, a clear development roadmap, and financial health.
Save funds. Many investors want to buy coins from the last bull market's projects because the token prices of these projects are down 90% from their all-time highs. But the problem is that most of the best-performing projects in the next cycle have not yet been listed. Compared to projects from previous bull markets, investors are more likely to strategically position themselves in new projects.
Control trading frequency. Although the current market is boring, do not let boredom control your urge to trade. First, survive in the crypto space, and then discuss profits. Wait for better trading opportunities rather than trading randomly due to market boredom.
Learn during the bear market. The bull market is not a good time to learn; it's a good time to pick up money. The current bear market is the right time to learn.
Monitor liquidity. Always pay attention to the inflow of funds into CEX, the minting of stablecoins, the TVL of DeFi protocols, and the overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies. Changes in these factors can represent changes in liquidity in the crypto space. More liquidity means the market is improving.
Second stage: early bull market.
The market begins to warm up, and prices start to rise; people will not believe that a bull market is coming.
The hardest to accept is not believing in the arrival of the bull market. After all, the psychology of investors who have lost in a bear market will hinder them from gaining profits in a bull market; many will be anxious, thinking the market will decline further. If you want to achieve excess returns in a bull market, the earlier you bet before others enter, the better!
What reasons can lead to a bull market?
Major industry events, such as the approval of BTC or ETH ETFs, or a new country adopting BTC as legal tender.
The BTC halving will come in 2024. Of course, the past Bitcoin halvings leading to price increases do not necessarily mean that next year's halving will lead to increases. But if enough people believe that halving will cause an increase, the market consensus formed will also push prices up.
New narratives. In the last bull market, the crypto space had two major narratives: DeFi and NFT. What about this round of bull market? GambleFi?
Telegram Bots? RWA? GameFi? Or will NFTs reignite the market? Of course, the most likely sectors are those with relatively low market heat, such as games like Axies Infinity or Stepn, but with better economic models and game mechanics.
Macroeconomic conditions improve. For example, if the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates, more liquidity will flow into the crypto space.
Regulatory changes. The US and other countries are providing more transparent and effective regulation for the cryptocurrency market.
More convenient. Ordinary people still face many difficulties entering the crypto space. More convenient wallets and more user-friendly dApps for beginners will also promote the bull market.
Eastern markets. Cryptocurrency investors and builders on Twitter have regional pride and prefer Western markets. This is why most people cannot understand why Tron is so popular (Tron has a large customer base in the Asian market). The influence of regions like South Korea and Hong Kong on cryptocurrency is also significant.
In fact, only a significant factor's occurrence can trigger a chain reaction.
Some people in the crypto space have started making money due to the market improvement. They have improved their quality of life and then told those around them, who are very likely to be FOMOed into the market, bringing in more off-market funds and further driving up market prices, creating a positive cycle.
Operation advice:
1. Reduce your positions in losing assets and increase your positions in profitable ones. Be sure to cut losses in a timely manner.
An opportunity or protocol will help you! Don’t be anxious.
Achieving a 5x return does not mean it cannot achieve a 10x return!
Whether the price can continue to rise depends on indicators and market sentiment.
As for those investments that caused you losses, you should reduce your positions in time.
2. Take profits during the rise and set your stop-loss. No one can sell at the highest point; establish your profit-taking system and stick to it.
3. Manage your positions in altcoins and shitcoins well. Do not use family assets, retirement funds, or sell BTC and ETH to buy altcoins in large positions. You can buy altcoins and shitcoins, but don't go all in or use high leverage, as the risks are too high.
4. Dumb investments. Historical evidence shows that
Some projects with crazy rallies have mediocre fundamentals and tokenomics. Remember: only when the market...
There is heat in the market; when investors buy this coin, the price will rise. Most investors do not seek to understand the operational logic and economic models behind a project, but where there is market consensus, there will be a rise in tokens.
5. Be cautious of Ponzi schemes. In a bull market,
There will be Ponzi-like projects where the project parties know how to manipulate market sentiment and pump prices. But inevitably, Ponzi schemes will eventually die out. You can embrace Ponzi schemes, but make sure to profit and exit before the market crashes; of course, you can also choose not to engage with Ponzi projects.
6. Don’t overlook the voices of retail investors. In some cryptocurrency podcasts and conferences, everyone discusses various emerging technologies, and this can easily lead you to fall into it. Ordinary investors do not understand these technical terms at all. However, you need to engage with ordinary investors to understand their movements, such as checking what they are currently focused on on Reddit and YouTube.
7. Focus on certain areas. Find a few areas that belong to your expertise. In the crypto space, it's impossible to keep up with all the hot spots, and it's also impossible to profit from every rise. Missing a few good projects or a few doubling coins is acceptable.
From now on, focus on a few areas that you know best; when opportunities arise, you must seize them!
Third stage: bull market peak.
This is the stage where retail investors start to flood in. They enter at the peak of the bull market, but they believe they are entering at the beginning of the bull market.
The arrival of the bull market is a positive feedback loop. As prices rise, this will drive investors in the market to have FOMO emotions. This is a positive feedback loop: they FOMO, they buy, and thus continuously push prices up.
All coins will rise. A $10,000 altcoin can bring huge returns to your life; you might hear people discussing cryptocurrency-related topics while casually shopping or walking around.
The market will increasingly see FOMO. Some people may even quit their jobs to become full-time cryptocurrency traders. There will also be people selling their houses to invest in the crypto space.
So how can one detect whether the market has peaked?
Mainstream media is starting to report on cryptocurrency. You'll repeatedly hear in the news about things like someone trying to find a cold wallet containing 8,000 Bitcoin, or someone using 10,000 Bitcoin to buy two pizzas.
Financial YouTubers like MeetKevin, Max Maher, and Graham Stephen upload multiple cryptocurrency videos daily.
Mainstream brands like Pepsi and McDonald's will start mentioning cryptocurrency to expand their brand influence. Celebrities will try to make money by sponsoring or launching their own NFT series.
When KOLs or other investors on Twitter are crazily showing off their profits, you should be alert.
Everyone is showing off their profits.
- The market may have peaked.
Everyone will try to make you believe that this time is different. You must fight against your instincts.
At this stage, most people in the market will think the bull market will continue and prices will keep rising, but the most important thing at this time is when to exit. At this stage, you must remain calm and realize that there is no market that rises forever.
It is most important to turn floating profits into actual profits and secure them!
Fourth stage: declining stage.
Prices rise quickly and fall quickly; the peak of the bull market has passed. At this stage, everyone will speculate whether this is indeed the peak of the bull market and whether there will be another wave of price increases.
There will be a narrative in the market: this time is different - cryptocurrency has become a mainstream investment product! The bull market will continue for several years!
Everyone's FOMO has reasons behind it. From the perspective of project parties, they must involve more retail investors to gain investment. From the perspective of retail investors, more funds must be involved to drive up altcoin prices. Thus, they will continually FOMO you.
Of course, although the bear market has arrived and prices are falling, the market occasionally has some hotspots. Bitcoin peaked in November 2021. However, in the following months, FTM and Luna continued to rise.
Once the price plummets, there will be hindsight critics who say, 'I told you the price would drop long ago!'
After missing the last two years of the bull market, what makes me so sure that there will still be a bull market for cryptocurrency?
Because I have staked my career and the next ten years of my life on DeFi. I am confident in this field.
Let me briefly explain the reasons:
Under the current economic conditions, it is increasingly difficult for ordinary people, and living pressures are growing, mainly reflected in the following aspects:
Credit card debt has hit a historic high.
Per capita debt has reached a historic high.
Student loan repayment amounts are increasing.
Credit card interest rates hit a historic high.
Debt interest expenses are about to hit a historic high.
The average monthly payment for new cars has hit a historic high.
Let's not even mention housing prices!
The current economic situation makes everyone's life difficult. Living costs are rising year by year, and the benefits of going to college and finding a job are not enough to buy a house.
Meanwhile, the social value of success is constantly increasing.
Among this generation of young people, no one wants to grow slowly; no one wants to achieve financial freedom in middle age. Young people want to get rich now and hope to have enormous wealth at a younger age.
Cryptocurrency is not just a new financial asset for young people; it’s a dream. For them, there’s no faster way to make money than through cryptocurrency.
Cryptocurrency is an excellent opportunity for young people to realize their dreams and strive for change.
If you are just entering the market, come to me, and I will teach you to learn while operating: if you are already in a not-so-ideal situation, come to me; I will help you and ensure you don’t make the same mistakes again; if your positions are stuck, I will provide reasonable solutions based on your entry points. Because everyone's entry points are different, the methods for resolving them will also differ—some are suitable for conservative investors, and some are suitable for aggressive investors. I will use the most appropriate methods to genuinely solve your problems and assist you in exiting.
$SOL $PEPE $POL
