Bitcoin has been experiencing a decline once a day, and it should have gone through 3 to 4 times by now. The wave of market movement the night before last was different from the other three times; the other three times saw a recovery above 98000 points after a significant drop. However, in the past two days, the Bitcoin market has not returned to above 98000, leading some friends to ask me during our chats whether a downward trend has begun, suggesting a view down to 80000, 70000, or even 60000. Some even say the bull market has ended.

Let me give you my analysis directly. First, I'll mention the larger structure; given the current market situation, it's possible that we will continue to see a large-scale decline, but this drop will not happen directly. There will definitely be a back-and-forth pull, spiraling downwards. I may not be clear on the exact price point, but it will certainly induce panic. You can see that the funding rates for those going long are very high, indicating that many are still trying to bottom out. According to a medium to long-term logic, everyone knows the bull market has just started and there is a long way to go, suggesting that it should rise to at least above 100000. So, there are actually two factions now: one is constantly trying to bottom out, and the other is hoping for a crash and actively shorting. Therefore, from the perspective of the main players, if you are the main player, which group do you want to make money? If I were in their position, I would not want either side to profit, so driving the price down is quite reasonable. It would be a spiral, a rebound downwards, and those shorting will panic, while those going long could explode.

Therefore, at least for the next half month, we will be grinding the bottom without inducing panic selling; there will be no rebound. When everyone is panicking, I will tell you, bottom fishing will be the way to go.