In September 1990, Marilyn vos Savant—widely recognized for holding the world’s highest IQ (228)—ignited a firestorm of debate in her Parade Magazine column. Her solution to the Monty Hall problem, a probability puzzle inspired by the game show Let’s Make a Deal, challenged conventional thinking and sparked an uproar among academics and readers alike.
🎲 The Monty Hall Problem: A Probability Puzzle
The Scenario:
1️⃣ A contestant faces three doors:
One hides a car (the prize).
Two hide goats.
2️⃣ After choosing a door, the host (who knows what’s behind each door) reveals a goat behind one of the unselected doors.
3️⃣ The contestant must then decide:
Stick with their original choice.
OR switch to the remaining unopened door.
The Question:
To maximize the chance of winning the car, should the contestant stick or switch?
💡 Marilyn’s Answer: “Always Switch”
Her Reasoning: Switching increases the chances of winning from 1/3 to 2/3.
💥 The Backlash: A Wave of Criticism
Marilyn’s answer sparked outrage. She received 10,000+ letters, including nearly 1,000 from PhD holders, with 90% claiming she was wrong.
🔴 Common criticisms included:
“You completely misunderstood probability.”
“This is a mathematical disaster!”
“Maybe women aren’t suited for math.”
✅ But Was She Wrong? No—She Was Right!
The Mathematical Breakdown:
1️⃣ Initial Probability:
Picking the car on the first try: 1/3.
Picking a goat: 2/3.
2️⃣ Host’s Role:
If the first choice is a goat (2/3 chance), the host always reveals the other goat. Switching guarantees a win.
If the first choice is the car (1/3 chance), switching results in a loss.
3️⃣ Conclusion:
By switching, contestants win 2/3 of the time.
🔬 Proof & Validation
Marilyn’s explanation has since been validated through:
Computer Simulations: Thousands of trials consistently showed a 2/3 win rate for switching.
MythBusters: The popular show confirmed her reasoning.
Academic Apologies: Many critics, including PhD holders, later admitted their error.
🤔 Why It Feels Counterintuitive
1️⃣ Misjudging Probabilities:
People mistakenly think revealing a goat resets the odds to 50/50.
2️⃣ Reset Bias:
They see the second choice as independent of the first, ignoring the original probabilities.
3️⃣ Deceptive Simplicity:
The small number of doors hides the problem’s deeper complexity.
🧠 Marilyn vos Savant: A Genius Beyond Numbers
World’s Highest IQ (228): Recognized by Guinness World Records.
Prodigious Memory: By age 10, she had read and memorized 24 volumes of the Encyclopaedia Britannica.
A Humble Start: Despite her brilliance, Marilyn faced financial struggles, leaving university to support her family.
Her Ask Marilyn column became a platform to tackle logic puzzles, earning her both admiration and fierce criticism.
📚 The Legacy of the Monty Hall Problem
Marilyn’s handling of the Monty Hall problem teaches us:
The gap between intuition and mathematics can lead even experts astray.
Standing firm in the face of widespread doubt can turn ridicule into triumph.
Her resilience, logic, and courage left an indelible mark on probability theory—and inspired millions to think critically and challenge assumptions.
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