On Monday, the focus will be on US and European data guidance, with attention on Germany's November IFO Business Climate Index during the European session. If it improves for two consecutive months, there is a chance to record the highest level since the second half of the year. In the evening, the US November Dallas Fed Business Activity Index may remain negative but has a chance to improve.
On Tuesday, the US will release major real estate-related data, including the September Home Price Index and October New Home Sales, with the latter previously reaching a one-year high, focusing on whether it will rise further. At the same time, the November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be released, expected to continue to improve; the November Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to maintain negative growth.
On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision, with the market expecting a significant cut of 50 basis points to 4.25%. As the market has gradually digested this outlook, it is expected not to have too much direct impact on the New Zealand dollar in the short term, but further reductions in short-term interest rates may cause pressure, and the future direction of rates will largely depend on the performance of subsequent data.
The data on the day focuses on the revised value of the US third-quarter GDP, with the previous value showing a steady growth of 2.8% in the US economy last quarter, indicating that the recent strong momentum of the US economy can be sustained this summer, supported by strong consumer and government spending. We will watch for any changes in the revised value to determine the market's confidence and direction regarding the US economy.
At the same time, the US Core PCE Price Index for October will be released, with the previous value showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% in the September Core PCE Price Index, with the month-on-month growth reaching its highest record in six months. As the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, if it accelerates for two consecutive months, combined with the previous CPI report showing stubborn inflation, it will further weaken the possibility of the Fed continuing to cut rates in December. On Wednesday, pay attention to our PCE price report preview.
On Thursday, the US Thanksgiving holiday will see the market closed, with trading in precious metals and crude oil futures contracts ending early. The market continues to digest the inflation report; data to pay attention to includes the Eurozone's November Economic Sentiment Index and Germany's November CPI, which is expected to remain at the ECB's target of 2% year-on-year. On Friday, the Eurozone's November CPI will follow closely, and with the previous value returning to the ECB's target, it has paved the way for further rate cuts in December. We will see if the latest inflation further retreats into the target range.
