On November 24, 2024, at 10 AM, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on social platform X, indicating that the Bitcoin market has not yet entered a bubble stage, and future prices are expected to reach $141,000. This view is based on an in-depth analysis of realized capitalization.

Market Status Analysis

  1. Achieve steady market capitalization growth

    • Realized capitalization is an indicator that measures the scale of market capital inflow by calculating the total value of all Bitcoins at the time of their last on-chain transfer. Ki Young Ju stated that, from the perspective of realized capitalization, the growth of Bitcoin's market value is not significant relative to cumulative on-chain capital inflow.

    • This means that the current market growth is mainly driven by actual capital flows rather than speculative behavior, so the market has not yet formed a bubble.

  2. Historical Data Comparison

    • Historical data shows that during bull markets, Bitcoin's market value usually exceeds realized capitalization and peaks when retail investors enter the market in large numbers.

    • Conversely, during bear markets, market value may fall below realized capitalization, indicating market pessimism and a lack of investor confidence.

    • The current market situation is closer to the early stages of a bull market, with the steady rise of realized capitalization suggesting there is still significant room for future price increases.

Market Sentiment and Fundamentals

  1. Market Sentiment

    • Although Bitcoin prices have fluctuated in the past few months, the overall trend remains upward. Investor confidence is gradually increasing, especially with the continuous entry of institutional investors, injecting new momentum into the market.

    • Positive evaluations of Bitcoin in social media and news reports are also increasing, further enhancing market sentiment.

  2. Fundamental Changes

    • Bitcoin, as a decentralized digital currency, derives its value from its scarcity and security. With the continuous development and application of blockchain technology, the use cases for Bitcoin are also expanding.

    • Governments and financial institutions worldwide are becoming increasingly open to Bitcoin, with more countries beginning to accept it as a legitimate payment method, providing strong support for its long-term development.

Investment Recommendations

  1. Long-term Holding

    • For long-term investors, the current price level is still attractive. Ki Young Ju's analysis indicates that the Bitcoin market has not yet entered a bubble stage, and there is still significant potential for future price increases.

    • It is recommended that investors remain patient and continue to hold Bitcoin while waiting for the market to rise further.

  2. Risk Management

    • Although the market outlook is optimistic, Bitcoin prices are highly volatile, and investors still need to manage risks effectively. It is recommended to set reasonable stop-loss points to avoid significant losses due to short-term fluctuations.

    • Buying and selling in batches is also an effective strategy to reduce risk, as it can diversify investment costs and lessen the impact of market fluctuations.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin market has not yet formed a bubble, and the steady rise of realized capitalization indicates that there is still considerable room for future price increases. Investors should remain rational, pay attention to changes in market fundamentals and technical aspects, and manage risks while seizing future investment opportunities. The target price could reach $141,000, but this requires time and joint efforts from the market.