This is not blind optimism, but a comprehensive judgment based on multi-faceted market logic, macro environment and crypto market laws.



1. Bull market duration and potential driving forces

I expect this bull market to last at least until the second half of next year, and possibly longer. The following two factors will be key drivers:

  1. US policy turns favorable to cryptocurrencies

    • Policy possibilities if Trump returns to power: If Trump comes to power, he has publicly expressed a relatively open attitude towards Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies on many occasions. Some of the Republican Party’s policy goals include reducing regulation of financial markets, which may promote the introduction of cryptocurrency-friendly policies, such as:

      • Clarify the tax rules for cryptocurrencies.

      • Provide enterprises with a more relaxed blockchain and digital asset regulatory environment.

      • Promote digital currency innovation in the United States to avoid falling behind in international competition.

    • If these policies are gradually implemented, market confidence and capital inflows will significantly increase.

  2. The Fed’s rate cut brought about ample liquidity

    • There is a high probability of interest rate cuts in the first half of next year: The market generally predicts that the Federal Reserve will enter a rate cut cycle starting next year. This trend will have a direct impact on the crypto market:

      • Interest rate cuts will increase the attractiveness of risky assets, and cryptocurrencies, as highly volatile assets, may receive more capital inflows.

      • Lower interest rates tend to lead to a weaker dollar, further driving investors toward inflation-resistant assets such as Bitcoin.

2. Logical Basis of Price Prediction

1. Bitcoin: Target price: $180,000

logic:

  • Halving effect plus bull market: Bitcoin will be halved in April 2024. Historical data shows that the bull market usually peaks within 12-18 months after the halving.

  • Institutional funds enter the market: In recent years, more and more institutions have viewed Bitcoin as digital gold, which is expected to drive prices higher. Especially in the context of the possible approval of ETF applications, more traditional funds may flow into the market.

  • Market size expansion: Assuming that this round of bull market pushes the market value of Bitcoin to 3 trillion US dollars, based on the circulation volume, the price target is between 150,000 and 180,000 US dollars.

2. Ethereum: Target price: $8,000

logic:

  • The explosion of L2 ecology: Ethereum’s Layer 2 solutions (such as Arbitrum and Optimism) are improving network efficiency and reducing transaction costs. This will attract more developers and users and promote ecological prosperity.

  • Favored by institutional investment: Ethereum has become the main infrastructure for DeFi and NFT, and its staking income and economic model optimization (EIP-1559, etc.) will continue to attract capital.

  • Historical increase reference: In the last bull market, the price of Ethereum rose from $700 at the end of 2020 to a high of $4,800 in 2021, an increase of nearly 7 times. If the current bull market repeats similar performance, the price could reach $8,000 based on the current $1,500.

3. Dogecoin: Target price: $1

logic:

  • The resurgence of social-driven crypto assets: Dogecoin’s core value comes from community support and social media popularity. When bullish sentiment is high, Dogecoin often becomes the asset of choice for retail investors.

  • Increased practicality: Tesla CEO Musk has repeatedly hinted at using Dogecoin for payment scenarios, which may drive wider adoption. The combination of payment demand and community enthusiasm may push it to break through its historical high ($0.73).

  • Improved liquidity: As a highly liquid asset, Dogecoin tends to perform better than expected in a bull market, with $1 being a psychological price point when market sentiment is high.

3. Strengthening factors of the macro environment

  1. Global encryption policy shift
    Not only the United States, many countries (such as Europe, Japan, and Hong Kong) are gradually improving cryptocurrency regulation to provide a more stable policy environment for the bull market.

  2. Safe-haven assets gain more appeal
    Geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures will prompt more investors to allocate funds to inflation-resistant assets, with cryptocurrency being one of the main choices.

IV. Investment strategy recommendations

  1. Asset Allocation Ratio

    • Bitcoin (BTC): Mainstream asset, suitable for long-term holding, accounting for 50%.

    • Ethereum (ETH): Huge growth potential, accounting for 30%.

    • Dogecoin (DOGE): High risk, high reward, accounting for 10%.

    • Other assets or new projects (such as USUAL): 10%.

  2. Fixed investment strategy

    • In the early stage of a bull market, you can gradually increase your positions, especially by buying in batches during a pullback to avoid chasing high prices.

    • In the later stage of the bull market (possibly in 2025), pay attention to locking in profits in batches.

Finally, I want to say:

My prediction of $180,000 for Bitcoin, $8,000 for Ethereum, and $1 for Dogecoin is based on a comprehensive judgment of the halving effect, macroeconomic policies, capital inflows, and market sentiment. The duration and scale of this bull market may exceed most people's expectations, so early layout and patient holding are the key to achieving profitability.

If you can't hold it, just pretend I didn't say anything 😂

$BTC $ETH $DOGE

#BTC创历史最大月度涨幅