Recently, Ethereum has shown some improvement, but when will the altcoin season come?
This topic is quite sensitive, but it still needs to be discussed.
Not long ago, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler tweeted that he would resign on January 20, the day Trump takes office. This news caused Solana (SOL), which is applying for an ETF, to briefly break its historical high, reaching $264, becoming the second mainstream coin to break its historical high after Bitcoin.
Because Gary Gensler is like a mountain pressing down on the crypto space, and this mountain is finally about to be removed. This is undoubtedly good news for regulation in the crypto space, and the entire market will be much more relaxed. While Bitcoin continues to set new highs, its growth rate has clearly slowed down, while Ethereum and Solana, as the second and other mainstream coins, have quietly caught up.
Continuing today's daily BTC market analysis: From the K-line perspective, the 1-hour level is down, the 4-hour level is sideways and weak, the 12-hour level is up, and the daily level is up. Today's resistance level is 100,000, and the support level is 97,000 dollars. Note: Today's fear and greed index is 93.
So, when will it be the turn for altcoins? Is there still an opportunity?
In fact, when Bitcoin stabilizes at a high level and its growth slows down, it often presents opportunities for mainstream coins like Ethereum and Solana. The growth of Bitcoin has been pushed to a certain extent by institutions, almost forcing out most of the shorts. The current pullback and adjustment instead provide an opportunity for retail investors to enter the market.
Ethereum started to catch up on the evening of the 21st, and then several quality projects in its ecosystem followed suit, with increases mostly around 20%. Altcoins like Ripple (XRP) and Dogecoin (DOGE) have also shown noticeable improvement recently.
The current operational suggestion is: wait for Bitcoin to pull back, then pay attention to the entry opportunities for altcoins. Chasing highs now is clearly not appropriate; during Bitcoin's pullback, focus on those strong varieties. After all, if you want to gain returns in this bull market, now is the time to show your vision.
SOL breaks its historical high, who will be next to set a new high?
On November 22, 2024, Solana (SOL) set a historical high of $264, surpassing the previous cycle's peak of $259.9 in November 2021. This day was undoubtedly a festival and celebration for Solana's development team and holders. Following Bitcoin and PEPE's record refresh, SOL also welcomed its new high.
So, will the next coin to set a new high be Ethereum (ETH)?
Could it still be ORDI?
Or could it be BNB?
Or will it be Dogecoin (DOGE)?
Solana (SOL) has truly astonished everyone, leaving its competitor Ethereum (ETH) far behind. Since the beginning of 2024, SOL's increase has exceeded 150%, while ETH has only seen a 45% increase. Despite Ethereum being an established public chain that was created earlier than Solana, this year's coin price has lagged far behind SOL, with a difference of three times.
This has made some Ethereum supporters feel a bit disheartened.
However, despite this, Ethereum still firmly holds the second position in market cap, with a total market cap more than three times that of Solana. BNB has not been so lucky; it has been competing with Solana for ranking and previously held a steady position in the top four. Unexpectedly, recently SOL's surge has been too strong, skyrocketing to a market cap of $124.2 billion, successfully surpassing BNB, which now sits in fifth place with $92.6 billion.
Recently, there have been many complaints in the BNB community, with many feeling that CZ has become like a different person, and Binance's development has become more conservative. The price trend is the most direct proof of this.
Speaking of coin prices, we must mention the current market. The current secondary market is somewhat fragmented, with 99% of altcoins not performing well and lacking new stories and consensus. Those old stories have been repeated for years, and no one is willing to believe them anymore. The current market has entered the stage of value investment.
Only those coins with genuinely strong fundamentals, whether MEME coins or application coins in public chains, have the opportunity to continue advancing alongside Bitcoin's bull market. Solana is a great example.
BNB is similar. BNB is not just a platform coin; like Solana, it is also an application coin of a public chain and a natural 'mother coin.' Those holding BNB do not have to spend money and can earn a bunch of 'child coins' every year.
From this perspective, the next coin to break its historical high is likely to be BNB. Currently, BNB's price is about $632, and its historical highest price is $721, meaning it only needs to rise about 14% to set a new high. As for Ethereum, it needs to rise 44% to break its historical high of $4868; ORDI needs to rise 150%; Dogecoin (DOGE) needs to rise 87%.
Why is Solana performing so strongly?
In the crypto space, most people believe that Solana has the backing of Wall Street capital and is a project manipulated by the U.S., which also explains its rapid rise. In contrast, Ethereum is considered to have some ties to Russia, making it difficult for the U.S. to fully control. Solana, on the other hand, is the official chain of USDC, which is itself launched by Circle, a subsidiary of Coinbase.
What kind of bull market is this exactly? This time, the market is dominated by institutional funds, especially driven by spot ETFs, with institutions buying large amounts of Bitcoin, as Bitcoin is relatively safe. But where will the remaining funds flow?
The answer is the currencies issued by the United States itself, or those they can control, such as Solana and Dogecoin, which are very representative.
A well-known DeFi project MakerDAO's founder Rune Christensen once wrote an article (Exploring Solana Codebase Branch as NewChain), in which he mentioned that Maker hopes to build future infrastructure based on Solana and believes Solana's tech stack is the most promising.
This article sparked some significant controversy, as Rune stated that Solana is superior to Ethereum (while Maker itself is built on Ethereum). Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin refuted this, even forcing Rune to apologize and giving Vitalik some vague responses.
However, as the controversy gradually subsides, Solana has begun to rise sharply, and there are even voices in the market suggesting that Solana could potentially replace Ethereum as the second-largest coin in the crypto space.
Most investors actually do not care whether Solana can truly replace Ethereum; they are more concerned about whether Solana can continue to bring them excess returns. If Solana cannot do this, then it is just a flash in the pan and may disappear in the next round.
Regardless of what the future holds, Solana has carved out its unique trend, and so far, those holding Solana have not been trapped. It has indeed lived up to the expectations of every supporter.
Can MEME coins rise again?
I believe that MEME coins will likely continue to be popular in this bull market, which is why I continue to hold some leading MEME coins.
I believe that after a short-term adjustment, the MEME coin market will welcome a new hot spot explosion. Because in such a bull market, new narratives always emerge, and the market needs new triggers to drive the trend.
The best strategy right now should be to hold Solana and leave the rest for others to play with. If there are certain opportunities, one can slightly ambush some projects that may enter Binance in the future.
I suggest that we can pre-arrange some leading projects in specific niches, preferably those that have experienced 2-3 rounds of 70-80% drawdowns but still survived. Additionally, the market cap should not be too high, ideally below $100 million.
The community consensus for these projects needs to be strong, and the base of holders needs to be large and continuously growing.
In the MEME coin sector, it is worth paying attention to some projects related to Musk, Trump, and Binance.
Among them, I think the DeSci sector is particularly worth paying attention to. Longevity and genetics are currently hot topics among the wealthy and have an influence that is not less than AI.
RIF is currently the leader in this sector, combining the long-term narrative of value coins with the MEME market. It not only supports scientific research projects, providing transparency and funding, but also brings liquidity and attention through MEME-style dissemination, representing an innovative integration of value coins and MEME.
Binance founder CZ has clearly stated that he will focus on the three sectors of biological research, education, and AI for the long term. Currently, tokens in the education and AI sectors have already been launched on Binance, and the only one not yet launched is this new DeSci sector.
If Binance can launch RIF's spot trading, it will have great significance for the crypto community.
Additionally, OKX's Web3 wallet has set up a separate section for DeSci and listed it at the forefront. I believe this sector has the opportunity to break out and is worth close attention.
From the perspective of creating value, if DeSci can improve the economic incentive mechanisms for scientific research, the progress of longevity technology may accelerate.
There has always been a significant income gap among researchers. In fact, scientific research work itself is a decentralized activity, and there are very few projects that receive national funding.
The main driving force behind scientific research comes from a large group of PhD students. They are very talented individuals, but relying solely on meager subsidies is far from enough. What truly supports their progress is interest and passion.
Many researchers often 'generate power for love.' Even if they occasionally achieve research results, they need substantial funding support to complete the technology transfer. Meanwhile, user support is also crucial in this process.
It can be said that DeSci is actually transforming the scientific research field in a way similar to ICOs.
Currently, the traditional VC model seems to be losing its strength, while the MEME coin approach can attract enough attention and help projects open up narratives and market expectations.
According to the current trend, the core storyline of this bull market is likely Bitcoin and MEME coins.
Whether you are working on a public chain or other projects, if you do not understand this logic, it will be very difficult to attract market capital and attention.
The leading sectors in a bull market usually revolve around the main storyline. Giants like a16z have already realized this and have early laid out the AI MEME sector.
For us, it is also important to go with the flow. As long as we hold a large position in BTC and SOL, while using a small position to ambush some MEME coins that have a chance to be listed on Binance, we can outperform over 90% of people in the market.
