In the past few weeks, Toncoin [TON] has hovered between $5.1 and $5.5. Although most altcoins have recently reached new highs due to continued momentum from Bitcoin, TON's gains have been modest.
In fact, at the time of writing, Toncoin's trading price is $5.55. This marks a 1.83% increase in the past day. Additionally, the altcoin has shown gains on both the weekly and monthly charts, increasing by 4.91% and 6.85%, respectively.
Despite recent gains, TON remains about 32.84% lower than its all-time high of $8.24. Therefore, although the altcoin has recorded some gains on the price chart, the overall market sentiment remains bearish.
What do TON's charts indicate?
According to analysis from AMBCrypto, Toncoin is facing strong selling pressure in bearish sentiment during a bull market.
This selling pressure is reflected in the increase of funds flowing into exchanges. According to IntoTheBlock data, inflows to exchanges surged by 37.54% in the past 24 hours. During this period, inflows increased from a low of $34.05 million to $48.69 million.
When the inflow of funds into exchanges surges, it reflects a lack of investor confidence, prompting them to shift assets for sale to maximize profits or minimize losses.
Furthermore, Toncoin's Stoch RSI showed a bearish crossover a few days ago, indicating that sellers are dominating the market. During this period, the index has dropped from 85 to 39.
Looking further, Toncoin's stock-to-flow (SFR) ratio has dropped from 44.28 to 0 in the past week. The significant decline in SFR indicates that the altcoin is experiencing an oversupply situation. An increase in supply without demand typically leads to a price drop.
Therefore, if the inflow increases while the supply remains unchanged or decreases, this oversupply will lead to a collapse in scarcity, significantly reducing Toncoin's perceived value.
What should the altcoin do next?
Despite TON's rise on the price chart, the long-legged doji indicates that buyers are hesitant. The daily candlestick chart closing as a long-legged doji shows that both sellers and buyers are trying to dominate the market.
However, the market leans towards sellers, as evidenced by the bearish crossover of the relative vigor index (RVGI) four days ago.
If these bearish sentiments persist, TON may fall to $5.2, where there is strong support. Conversely, if buyers' recent attempts pay off, the altcoin will break through the consolidation range, reaching $6.6, where there is significant resistance.
