In the past few days, Bitcoin has continued to rise, while other coins are lukewarm and not following the rise closely, although there are local trends. It feels more like a sector rotation, and the first wave of meme coins has already been rotated out. It seems that today's rotating sector is Ripple-like payment attribute coins. The overall major trend has not yet arrived.
There have always been doubts about whether there will still be an altcoin season. Although I am still at a loss, I remain very confident and eager for the explosion of the altcoin season.
Today, with nothing to do on the weekend, I decided to do a technical analysis. About six months ago, I did an analysis on escaping peaks. At that time, I spent a night researching and I believe that many of my previous summary articles will be revisited when I want to escape peaks. I hope to successfully escape the peak in this bull market.
In fact, since the beginning of this year, I have been sharing my experiences and insights. I want to fully record my insights and market trends from this bull market, to see if I can inadvertently find some mysteries when I want to escape the peak, which would be helpful for my next cycle investment. Everything I can see is fate.
Without further ado, I want to study two questions. (1) When will the altcoin explosion actually come? (2) Analysis of Bitcoin's market capitalization share and market trend.
(1) When will the altcoin explosion actually come?
I am very confident that altcoins will eventually experience an explosion; it is only a matter of time. I see the lack of synchronization between altcoins and Bitcoin has confused many friends, leaving them at a loss. Sigh, Bitcoin has risen a lot, and yet I still see losses in my holdings.
Next, let's analyze their lack of synchronization based on previous bull markets.
The chart below shows the price trend of Bitcoin and the top ten coins; let's first look at the situation in 2017. On December 9, 2017, Bitcoin had already surged from the bottom for a month, almost 2-3 times, while the top ten altcoins were still at the bottom, accumulating strength.
Bitcoin reached the peak of the bull market a week later, and altcoins began to show a significant collective rise within that week.
After Bitcoin reached its peak, it began to experience a significant pullback, and the capital overflow from Bitcoin has started to flow significantly into altcoins, which have begun to surge violently. There is a clear lag of about 20 days from the time Bitcoin reaches its peak to when altcoins start to reach theirs.
Let's look at the situation in 2021. On January 27, 2021, Bitcoin had already surged from the bottom for a month and a half, almost 2-3 times, while the top ten altcoins still did not show significant increases; the altcoin market was still local.
Bitcoin has begun to continue rising, and altcoins have started to follow for a month and a half.
Bitcoin has started a half-month of initial fluctuations, and altcoins have begun to experience collective surges.
The capital overflow from Bitcoin has started to flow significantly into altcoins, and altcoins have begun to surge violently. There is a clear lag of about 20 days from the time Bitcoin reaches its peak to when altcoins start to reach theirs.
From the perspective of two bull markets, altcoins need to wait for more than a month after Bitcoin experiences a significant surge before they can truly rise. Currently, it has been about two weeks since Bitcoin began to rise significantly, so analyzing the current situation, it may take at least another two weeks for altcoins to experience a comprehensive staged surge.
In fact, from the market capitalization comparison curve, it is clear that the real bull market rise of Bitcoin often occurs out of sync with altcoins. When the synchronization is better, it also indicates that the bull market has not ended yet, or it has already passed. Additionally, looking back at the beginning of this year, the synchronized rise and fall of Bitcoin and altcoins indicated that it was not the true beginning of a major bull market. Currently, Bitcoin has begun to show an independent trend for two weeks, which suggests that a major altcoin trend may come in the next few weeks.
(2) Analysis of Bitcoin's market capitalization share and market trend.
Currently, Bitcoin's market capitalization share has reached 60%. Historically, this is a very sensitive point.
Because at the phase high point of Bitcoin, it basically always occurs when the Bitcoin share is 60%.
When reaching the peak, the share was basically around 55%.
When Bitcoin's market capitalization share falls from 60% to 40%, it needs to be taken seriously. At this time, altcoins reach their peak, and the bear market is about to come. This point is a good time to escape the peak. Opportunities must not be missed.
So from the current perspective, Bitcoin's market capitalization share has just reached 60%, and it is expected that the share will gradually increase. This means that Bitcoin may still need to rise independently for a while, possibly reaching 70% before altcoins start to welcome their spring.
In summary, friends who missed the low-priced Bitcoin should not be discouraged; just hold mainstream coins. In fact, this is currently a window period where Bitcoin is showing an independent trend and others are not rising much. This may be the best entry point for those who have missed out on Bitcoin but still want to catch this major bull market and make a profit. There are still many coins at their lows within the year. When the altcoin season arrives, there will be plenty of opportunities to profit. Those who have missed the Bitcoin train still have the last train waiting here; opportunities will flash by.
The key point is coming:
Next, I will lead my fans to position several coins that are expected to increase by more than 60%.
Stop being a headless fly buzzing around everywhere; follow Rui's pace and become someone great together.
If you want to follow the strategy, comment '1' in the section below, and Rui will personally guide you.
Continuously paying attention: doge sui x cow mask……
