Bitcoin ($BTC) is in the midst of a remarkable surge, recently hitting an all-time high of $93,905. Catalysts like Donald Trump’s media company acquiring Bakkt and the launch of spot BTC ETFs in the U.S. are fueling this rally, attracting a wave of new investors. Yet, with Bitcoin’s meteoric rise, many in the crypto community are asking: When will the bull market come to an end?
CryptoQuant, a leading on-chain analytics platform, has identified five key indicators that could signal the peak of this bull run. While these metrics provide valuable guidance, they should be viewed together and not as definitive predictions.
1. MVRV Ratio
The MVRV Ratio—Bitcoin’s market value divided by its realized value—is a crucial metric for predicting the end of a bull cycle. Historically, an MVRV Ratio above 3.7 has indicated a cycle peak. Currently, the ratio is 2.67, below the critical level. During Bitcoin’s February 2021 peak at $60,000, the MVRV Ratio hit a high of 7.
2. Fear and Greed Index
The Fear and Greed Index is another important indicator, measuring overall market sentiment. A score of 80 or higher often signals the end of a bullish cycle. As of November 19, the index reached 90—the highest since February 2021—and has stayed above 80 since November 12, suggesting caution.
3. New Money Inflows
A bull market often thrives on a strong influx of new money into Bitcoin. If these inflows slow down, it could indicate a decline in demand and a potential shift in market sentiment. Watching the pace of new investment is critical for gauging the bull market’s health.
4. Exchange Reserves
The amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges can provide clues about possible sell-offs. Rising reserves might indicate that investors are positioning themselves to cash out, signaling a potential peak. A spike in exchange reserves could mean increased sell pressure.
5. Mining Profitability
Bitcoin miners’ profitability is a crucial factor. When profits become exceptionally high, miners are more likely to sell their holdings, which can trigger downward price pressure. Monitoring mining margins can offer early warnings of a possible market downturn.
These indicators offer a comprehensive toolkit for tracking Bitcoin’s current bull cycle, but they should be interpreted with caution given the market’s inherent volatility. Staying informed and vigilant will be essential as Bitcoin continues its unpredictable journey.
