As of 1:00 PM Beijing time today, the price of Bitcoin has surpassed $97,852, setting a new historical record! This breakthrough not only reflects the strong bullish pattern of the market but also marks that the cryptocurrency market is entering a new phase.
United States: The White House plans to establish a cryptocurrency policy position
The Trump team is considering establishing a new position responsible for cryptocurrency policy, marking the first time the US government will open a dedicated channel for digital assets at the policy level. Former Coinbase executive Brian Brooks is also seen as a potential candidate for the position of SEC chairman. It is anticipated that once this position is established, the cryptocurrency industry will take an important step in terms of regulations and compliance.
Japan: Promoting a unified cryptocurrency tax rate
Japan plans to reduce the cryptocurrency tax rate to a unified rate of 20% by the end of 2024, significantly lower than the current highest rate of 55% for 'miscellaneous taxes.' This tax reform is expected to attract more international investment and position Japan as a cryptocurrency innovation hub in the Asia-Pacific region.
South Korea: Clear tax timetable
South Korea plans to impose a 20% tax on cryptocurrency gains starting in 2025. Although this policy may bring volatility to the market in the short term, clear tax rules will provide stable expectations for market development in the long run.
MicroStrategy's strong accumulation plan
MicroStrategy announced plans to purchase Bitcoin by issuing $2.6 billion in notes. At current prices, this funding could buy over 260,000 BTC, further consolidating institutional investors' dominance in the Bitcoin market.
Grayscale applies for a Bitcoin miner ETF
Grayscale's application for a Bitcoin miner ETF is expected to take effect in 2025. This innovative product is anticipated to provide new funding sources for miners while attracting more institutional investors to the market.
Short-term market volatility: Limited impact of options expiration
According to Deribit data, there will be Bitcoin options contracts with a notional value of $2.639 billion expiring tomorrow, with a maximum pain point at $85,000. Although this may trigger short-term volatility, considering the strong bullish sentiment in the market, this impact may be minimal.
The US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of 9,745 ETH yesterday, valued at $30.3 million.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 8,389 BTC yesterday, valued at $775 million.
BTC: From the chart, Bitcoin's daily chart has formed small bullish candles for several consecutive days and has once again reached a new historical high. The price has broken through the previous high area and is approaching the psychological barrier of 100,000, maintaining a strong overall trend. However, it is worth noting that the momentum of this surge has weakened. From a technical indicator perspective: RSI is close to the overbought area (around 86), indicating some short-term overheating signs in the market; the MACD bullish trend remains unchanged, but the histogram is beginning to shorten, suggesting diminishing momentum.
Overall, considering historical trends, the monthly chart may form a candlestick with a long upper shadow. This indicates that even if Bitcoin surges in the short term, the height may be limited, and there could be a risk of a pullback around the $100,000 level.
ETH: Ethereum is weakly correlated with Bitcoin's movements.
Altcoins: Due to Bitcoin's exceptionally strong performance, market funds have been concentrated as if being 'sucked dry' by it, resulting in an overall sluggish altcoin market. This situation is not uncommon in previous bull markets and is considered a normal phenomenon. Generally, after Bitcoin finishes its one-sided rise, some funds gradually flow back into the altcoin market, thus sparking the beginning of the 'altcoin season.'
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 82 (Extreme Greed)
