I believe this is the biggest question in the minds of most friends during this bull market. Bitcoin is approaching 【6 digits per coin】, yet altcoins are still in a downward spiral.
However, there are very few of us retail investors holding Bitcoin. Whether we are holding valuable coins or MEME coins, every day we just keep getting hit.
The way this bull market is unfolding is significantly more challenging compared to the past; the days of garbage coins skyrocketing and easy money making seem to have left us for too long.
In such a fragmented market, if one does not have a complete investment thinking framework, it is very easy to be influenced by market emotions, thus falling into a state of confusion, self-doubt, and making impulsive trades.

So, let's sort out what the 'causes' are for the current fragmented trend.

First perspective:

Since cryptocurrencies are dollar-denominated assets, let's analyze it from top to bottom, step by step. This will make our overall logical framework clearer.
First layer looks at macro: From a macro perspective, what stage are we currently in? We are in the initial stage of the entire Federal Reserve's easing cycle, rates have dropped, and liquidity is coming.
Second layer looks at US stocks: Reviewing the performance of US stocks throughout 2024, it is easy to conclude: Although the three major indices are hitting new highs, it is mainly driven by leading stocks. During the transition from tightening to easing, rates have dropped, and liquidity is coming. It is reasonable for limited funds in the market to cluster around major tech stocks, seeking stability and safety, especially in AI, which combines narrative, imagination, and popularity. The effect of leading stocks capturing everything is quite evident.
Third layer looks at the crypto market: The crypto market is a reflection of US stocks, so the effect of leading stocks capturing everything is also obvious. This is why Bitcoin is racing towards 6 digits while altcoins are stagnating.

Second perspective:

Different composition of funds, let's look at the recently hottest crypto-related assets:
$BTC, $IBIT, $MSTR, etc. In summary: leading stocks, US capital, regular army! Why hasn’t altcoin season come? It is evident that the regular army will not choose these altcoin assets for the time being.

Since we have analyzed the reasons, it is not difficult to arrive at conclusions:
1. When will altcoin season come? It will come when liquidity arrives.
2. Will altcoin season come? Yes, it will come. This is determined by the essence of capital and human nature, just like how we missed the chance with Dragon 1 and chased after Dragon 2.

At this time, it is important to remember: do not let market noise disturb you. Trading is actually very simple. A rise is a good time to sell, and a drop is a good time to buy; it’s just about buying low and selling high.