Bitcoin strongly broke through $97,000 today at noon, reaching a peak of $97,850 before the time of writing, setting a new historical high, with an increase of 5.58% in nearly 24 hours.
Against this backdrop, TradingView data shows that Bitcoin's market share (BTC.D) surged to 61.61%, reaching a new high since March 2021. As of the time of writing, there is still momentum to continue rising, indicating that the cryptocurrency market is currently centered around Bitcoin's rise.
When will the altcoin season arrive?
In the cryptocurrency market, when Bitcoin is leading alone, it often means that the market is still in the early stages and the altcoin season has not officially arrived. According to historical cycle rules, after Bitcoin leads, market funds will gradually flow to other mainstream coins (such as ETH, SOL, etc.) and small-cap tokens (altcoins), ultimately leading to a comprehensive explosion of the 'altcoin season'.
In this process, BTC.D is an important indicator for observing the rotation of market funds. Although the price of Bitcoin may continue to rise, the increase will gradually be surpassed by other cryptocurrencies, causing BTC.D to gradually decline from its high. Especially when BTC.D starts to plummet from a high point, it usually means that market funds are flowing into altcoins, which is an important signal for the start of the altcoin season.
BTC.D reveals market rotation.
Through the analysis of historical data, we can understand the key levels of BTC.D and its relationship with market cycles more clearly. Below are the BTC.D levels of three major altcoins when they reached historical highs according to CoinGecko data:
SOL: 9.9% away from the historical high of $259.96 on 2021/11/06, when BTC.D was about 43%.
XRP: 67.4% away from the historical high of $3.4 on 2018/01/07, when BTC.D was about 40%.
ADA: 74.6% away from the historical high of $3.09 on 2021/09/02, when BTC.D was about 41%.
Although the time points when these tokens reached historical highs vary, their commonality is that BTC.D is around 40%. This ratio is also the low point of BTC.D during the 2021 bull market, and during the bull market at the end of 2017, BTC.D even dropped to nearly 30%.
Therefore, when BTC.D falls below 50% (indicating that Bitcoin is no longer the sole leader), and further declines to the 40% level, this period may be the golden time for the altcoin season. Based on historical experience, this is the best time to capture the surge of altcoins.
Will meme season replace altcoin season?
However, it is believed that everyone has felt the difference between this bull market and the last one. Ethereum is no longer leading other mainstream coins, and meme coins are flourishing everywhere. Therefore, the 'cult leader' of meme coins, Murad Mahmudov, recently shared the image on the left, indicating that the Meme season of this cycle is a new altcoin season that many are waiting for.
Bitcoin leads => SOL catches up => DOGE rises, driving large-cap meme coins => Meme season fully erupts.
But of course, investors who believe in Ethereum will still use the image on the right to insist that everything will eventually turn to Ethereum. What will the outcome be? What do you believe in? The Block will continue to track and report.
