On Thursday (November 21), Bitcoin broke through $96,500, setting a new all-time high of $96,982. Robert Kiyosaki, author of the best-selling book (Rich Dad Poor Dad), called out an astonishing target price of $13 million, attracting significant attention from the community.
Kiyosaki wrote, 'A $13 million Bitcoin, according to Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy. I believe he is right. He's a smart kid. Bitcoin is $90,000 today. If Saylor's target is accurate, I think he is right, which means spending $9,000 today buys you 0.01 Bitcoin, and tomorrow you are a millionaire.'
He further explained, 'This is definitely better than being burdened with $50,000 in student loans, studying for years just to get an unreliable MBA. Get smarter, buy Bitcoin today, that's what I did.'
In addition to the ongoing Trump Trade, Wall Street's Bitcoin spot ETF has also received significant positive news.
CoinTelegraph reported that the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) options caused a stir in the market when its newly launched trading volume reached $1.9 billion. On Twitter, a few analysts considered the launch a success, as there was a remarkable imbalance in contracts by the end of the day.
There are 288,740 call options and 64,970 put options, with a ratio as high as 4.4:1.
On the surface, this suggests a bullish sentiment in the market, with some contracts indicating Bitcoin prices above $170,000. But does this optimism make sense, or are these trades more complex than they appear?
Options are a financial instrument that allows traders to bet on price movements or hedge risks without directly purchasing the underlying asset.
In IBIT options, the trading volume of the $100 call option contract expiring on December 20 is astonishing, reaching 9,500 contracts. At first glance, this suggests traders are betting on a Bitcoin surge. However, these contracts are priced at only $0.15 each, which is 0.3% of IBIT's current price of $53.40.
This pricing suggests that the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching an implied equivalent price of $175,824 is very low.
Some investors treat these low-cost options like lottery tickets; while these contracts are intriguing, they often distort perceptions of market sentiment.
To give a more practical example, consider the $65 IBIT call option expiring on January 17, priced at $2.40 (4.5% of the IBIT price). If Bitcoin reaches around $114,286 at expiration, this trade would be profitable, reflecting a 22% increase over two months.
Meanwhile, experienced traders may use strategies like synthetic longs. A Twitter user named 'Ashton Cheekly' shared an example: selling a put option with a strike price of $50 for the same price ($2.15) and buying a call option with a strike price of $60 effectively replicates ownership of Bitcoin without holding the asset.
Other strategies include covered call options, where investors holding IBIT sell call options to generate immediate income. For example, when IBIT trades at $53.40, they could sell a $55 call option expiring in January for $5.20.
This means investors can recoup their funds in advance but agree to limit their potential upside if IBIT exceeds $55. If IBIT closes at $45 or $50, the call options will expire worthless, allowing investors to retain the $5.20 premium, thereby reducing losses or increasing returns.
Similarly, the goal of the 'bull market call spread' is to achieve a moderate price increase while limiting risk. Traders can buy a call option with a strike price of $53 for $6.20 and sell a call option with a strike price of $58 for $4.10, netting $2.10. If IBIT closes at $58, the value of the $5 spread will yield a profit of $2.90 ($5 - $2.10 cost).
CoinTelegraph points out that the $170,000 Bitcoin price prediction is not market consensus—it is an outlier created by low-cost, high-return trades. IBIT options are filled with speculative bets, especially for contracts in February and May 2025, where the ratio of call options to put options is 6.7:1.
However, the likelihood of such extreme outcomes is minimal.
Options provide leverage, allowing smaller investments to achieve excessive potential returns. However, if the asset price does not move as expected, the options could expire worthless. For retail investors, the point is clear: Bitcoin ETFs and their options provide a new way to profit, but understanding the mechanics and probabilities is key.
