The Monty Hall Problem: Marilyn vos Savant and the Debate That Shook the Public
In September 1990, Marilyn vos Savant addressed the famous Monty Hall problem, named after the game show host Monty Hall, in her widely-read column. The problem posed a seemingly simple question:
The Scenario:
A contestant faces three doors, behind one of which is a car, while the other two hide goats.
After the contestant selects a door, the host reveals a goat behind one of the remaining doors.
The contestant is then given the choice to switch doors.
The Question:
Should the contestant switch doors to maximize their chances of winning?
Marilyn's Answer:
Her response was clear: “Yes, you should switch.”
This answer led to an overwhelming reaction. She received over 10,000 letters, including nearly 1,000 from PhD holders, with 90% insisting she was wrong. Critics included statements like:
"You completely messed up!"
"You are that goat (fool)!"
"Perhaps women view mathematical problems differently than men."
Was She Wrong?
No. Here’s the reasoning:
1. Probability Breakdown:
Scenario 1: The contestant initially chooses the door with the car (probability: 1/3). If they switch, they lose.
Scenario 2: The contestant chooses a door with a goat (probability: 2/3). The host, knowing the location of the car, reveals the other goat. If the contestant switches, they win.
Conclusion: Switching doors increases the probability of winning to 2/3, while staying with the initial choice has a 1/3 chance of success.
2. Proof and Validation:
Computer simulations by MIT confirmed her answer.
MythBusters replicated the problem and achieved the same result.
Scholars who initially disagreed later acknowledged their error and issued apologies.
Why Is the Answer Counterintuitive?
Misinterpretation of Probabilities: Many assume the remaining doors have equal probabilities (50%), which is incorrect.
Resetting the Situation: People often treat the second choice as an entirely new scenario, ignoring the probabilities established in the first step.
Small Sample Size: The simplicity of the problem (three doors) paradoxically makes it harder for people to grasp.
The Backstory of Marilyn vos Savant:
Renowned for her record-breaking IQ of 228, far exceeding that of Einstein (160-190), Hawking (160), or Musk (155).
At age 10, she:
Memorized entire books.
Read all 24 volumes of the Encyclopaedia Britannica.
Despite her extraordinary intellect, Marilyn faced significant challenges growing up:
Attended public school and dropped out of the University of Washington to support her family business.
In 1985, her life took a major turn when she began her Ask Marilyn column for Parade Magazine, a dream opportunity for a writer. However, her response to the Monty Hall problem thrust her into the public eye in an unexpected way.
Public Response and Legacy:
Despite the ridicule, Marilyn's answer was mathematically sound, proving her ability to see what many could not. Her explanation highlighted the gap between intuition and logic, making the Monty Hall problem a lasting example of probability theory's complexities.
Marilyn vos Savant remains a testament to brilliance and resilience, showing that even the brightest minds can face—and overcome—criticism when standing by the truth.
