Why are we sure that Ethereum will definitely crash?

First of all, this is our personal opinion, for reference only. Does everyone know the current long and short opponent data? Since Ethereum broke through 2700 until now, the actual long position data has never been below 80%, which means a large number of retail investors are bullish on Ethereum and believe it will easily go over 4000.

If it reaches 4000, it will "directly face liquidation", and the market will not achieve balance. There will still need to be leverage lenders to compensate the long contracts.

Perhaps some fans know that OKEx had a liquidation incident at that time. A user from Hangzhou, Yang Xiuchun, used 500 Bitcoins to hold a coin-based contract and then peaked at earning 50,000 Bitcoins. As a result, OKEx directly liquidated his position and froze his account. In the end, this person tried to contact various channels for resolution without success. At that time, we were doing rights protection and negotiation in this crypto sector, including now also working on mnemonic phrase corrections, overseas rights protection, and other businesses. He had contacted Jiu Ge himself and learned through some resources that OKEx had compensated him with 5,000 Bitcoins for this order and even took out 3,000 Bitcoins from their own pocket. Ultimately, they were willing to give him the 470 Bitcoins in his account, but due to Bitcoin suddenly surging in 2021, it ended up unresolved.

Therefore, the possibility of leverage lenders having to dig into their own pockets is very, very small. For the current market to see Ethereum rise, unless there is a strong inducement to short, stabilize the bearish sentiment, and then pump it up, there needs to be a solution to a problem: if retail long positions do not give up, they will still go crazy bottom-fishing during the pullback process. The probability of this is also very high, so we believe that it is unrealistic for Ethereum not to crash at least once.

Perhaps some retail investors will say, doesn’t that mean it has to keep falling until no one holds the chips?

Answer: The final result is indeed like this, and only a small number of retail investors will dare to hold chips. How many people dared to hold Ethereum when it was 800 US dollars each in 2022? Everyone was afraid of it falling to 300, 500, or even 200, because veteran investors know that as long as Ethereum's value exceeds 500 US dollars each, it is speculation.

Assuming this wave of crash goes directly to around 1000, how many people would dare to hold? Now maybe many people say they dare to hold, but when the time comes and the market declines, do you dare to hold?

#BTC何时突破10万？ $ETH