There are five major warning signs as Bitcoin nears a price peak, and one of those indicators has turned red, according to onchain data service CryptoQuant.
In a November 19 post on X, CryptoQuant shared the top indicators to watch when assessing whether the Bitcoin price is approaching unsustainable levels.
Source: CryptoQuant
MVRV Ratio
The first signal is the “MVRV ratio,” which measures the market value of Bitcoin — the total number of coins that have ever been mined — against its realized value, which is the sum of the most recent sales prices of all Bitcoins in circulation.
CryptoQuant says that if the ratio is above 3.7, it usually signals that Bitcoin has reached its current peak value. According to data from CoinGlass, it currently shows a score of 2.67.
Bitcoin's MVRV ratio peaked at 7 in February 2021 as Bitcoin surged to reach a historic peak of around $60,000.
See also: Altcoin purge finale is coming, warning from crypto traders
Bitcoin MVRV Historical Score. Source: CoinGlass
Fear & Greed Index Overheating
The next indicator to look out for is the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment.
When the index reaches 80 out of 100 points — combined with other metrics — Bitcoin could be nearing a local top, CryptoQuant asserts.
The index has been above 80 since November 12 and peaked at 90 on November 17 and 19 — its highest since February 2021.
Fear & Greed Index hits its highest point since 2021. Source: Alternative.me
New money flows in
The third signal tracks how much new money is pouring into the market — without significant “new money inflows,” the prices of cryptocurrencies tend to stagnate and eventually retreat.
CryptoQuant says Bitcoin's real-time capitalization growth chart is the ideal tool for monitoring the amount of money flowing into the market, and it currently shows that new money flows remain relatively high, meaning Bitcoin is in a “bullish phase.”
Coin Days Destroyed Index
Another indicator that assesses whether long-term BTC holders are actively selling is the Coin Days Destroyed tool, which shows the movement of Bitcoins that have been dormant for a long time and checks whether coins are being sold.
If this indicator crosses 15-20 million, CryptoQuant believes that this could be a short-term bearish signal for Bitcoin price. The indicator currently shows 15.1 million.
The Coin Days Destroyed chart shows how much of the dormant Bitcoin is being moved or sold. Source: CryptoQuant
Inter-Exchange Circuit
The final metric is Inter-Exchange Flow (IFP) which tracks the movement of Bitcoin to and from derivatives exchanges.
CryptoQuant says IFP still shows a bullish structure, with traders still moving Bitcoin to derivatives exchanges to use as collateral.
Bitcoin IFP is currently hovering around 730K and is moving in an upward trend. In previous bull runs, IFP reached a high of 1 million and fell to a low of 200K during the bear market in late 2023.
Bitcoin IFP remains consolidating in an uptrend. Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin price has continued to hit new highs since Donald Trump's election, with its latest peak on November 19 surpassing $94,100.
Some analysts believe that Bitcoin still has a lot of growth potential, including VanEck's head of digital asset research Matthew Sigel, who is targeting a $180,000 price for BTC sometime next year.
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