Bitcoin hit a new all-time high yesterday, reaching $93,844, up more than 3% in 24 hours.
The reason why I published an article yesterday morning (Bitcoin will explode at the end of the month, short positions will be blown up! Those who can't keep up will be eliminated sooner or later) to refute the view that Bitcoin is about to plummet is that the 4-hour level is stable, and the upper Bollinger band of the daily line continues to extend upward, so I am not bearish. In the past ten days, Bitcoin has been fluctuating sideways. Judging from the K-line trend of Bitcoin alone, it is still difficult to see a sharp decline.
There are two possibilities: 1. Before November 28, it may hit a new high of 95850 again, and then start to retreat. If it hits a high before November 28, the altcoin will also rush upward, so pay attention to reducing positions. 2. It will pull back before November 30, and pull back to below 86000. This is a very likely position. If it retreats to this position, it can be regarded as an opportunity to buy the bottom of the altcoin in the short term. I personally think it is difficult to fall very low, because from the new additions of stablecoins, the regulatory level after Trump took office, the entire fundamentals, and the real market sentiment, it is difficult to fall too much. So short-term retreat of a few thousand points, layout; short-term touch new highs, break new highs, reduce, and then keep the bottom position. Of course, if you hate short-term, you can consider reducing your position and wait for the next best layout point. I prefer to see a new high in the next ten days, and then a correction after an explosive (pin-like) rise, in response to some news in December. From the liquidation map, there is not much possibility of a large short-term decline, because there is no particularly large dog dealer short position layout. The recent trends of Bitcoin and altcoins are at two extremes. Bitcoin is flustered when it rises, and altcoins are flustered when they go sideways. Buy altcoins, fearing that Bitcoin will pull back and altcoins will directly avalanche. Don't buy altcoins, fear of missing out. Now keep an eye on the BTCD indicator. Only when it breaks the green line and intertwines downward can it be possible to get out of the altcoin season. The new MEME at the top is still the most noteworthy currency at present, and the view that this round may be a win-win for the top and new coins, and the middle coins will starve to death remains unchanged. Liquidity is too concentrated because it is not so abundant, mainly concentrated in the top coins of hot sectors. Head certainty BETA coins: BTC, SOL, DOGE Possibility BETA coins: XRP These coins are large-cap coins, which can be safely traded in waves, or they can be moved between these coins according to the rhythm. Top performing junk coins: ETH and BNB. Ethereum's ecology is lame, BN's mining has no wealth-creating effect, and market making is extremely disgusting. There is a reason for weakness. The result of waiting for a rebound is that there has been no rebound. When it falls, it will fall together. Be cautious. Top ALPHA coins: The track that is running out now is the on-chain track of SOL. At the beginning of the year, the chain was inscribed, and now the chain is beaten. It is the same reason.Pay attention to the top on-chain currencies, neiro, PUNT, and ACT, which have been listed on the secondary spot market. Compared with the top BETA currencies, the volatility of these currencies will be much higher, and there is a possibility that the main uptrend has not yet finished.
Yesterday, Bitcoin set a new historical high, reaching up to $93,844, with an increase of over 3% within 24 hours.
The reason I published yesterday morning (Bitcoin will surge at the end of the month, shorts will be liquidated! Those who can't keep up will eventually be eliminated) to refute the viewpoint that Bitcoin will crash soon is that the 4-hour level is stable, and the upper Bollinger Bands on the daily chart continue to extend upwards, so I am not bearish. In the past ten days, Bitcoin has been in a sideways consolidation; from the K-line trend of Bitcoin alone, it is still difficult to see a significant downward trend.
Predicting two possibilities:
1. Before November 28, there may be another surge to a new high of 95,850, followed by a pullback. If there is a surge before November 28, altcoins will also push up slightly, so pay attention to reducing positions.
2. A pullback before November 30, dropping below 86,000, is a highly likely position. If it retraces to this position, it can be seen as an opportunity to buy the dip in altcoins in the short term.
Personally, I think it's very difficult for prices to drop very low, because regarding the new situation of stablecoins, and the regulatory environment after Trump came to power, the entire fundamental market sentiment suggests that prices are unlikely to drop too much.
So a short-term pullback of a few thousand points can be a good entry; touching a new high, breaking a new high, then reducing positions, while keeping a good base position. Of course, if you dislike short-term trading, you might consider reducing positions and waiting for the next best entry point.
I am more inclined to believe that in the next ten days, there will be a surge to new highs, followed by a corrective pullback to respond to some news in December. From the liquidation map, the possibility of a significant short-term drop is also low, as I have not seen particularly large short positions laid out by major players.
The recent trends in Bitcoin and altcoin markets are two extremes: Bitcoin is making people anxious, while altcoins are horizontally making people anxious. Buy altcoins, but fear a Bitcoin pullback; if Bitcoin crashes, altcoins might directly avalanche. Not buying altcoins also raises concerns about missing out.
Now focus on the BTCD indicator; breaking the green line and entangling downwards is the only possibility for entering the altcoin season. The new MEME at the top is currently the most noteworthy coin, and maintaining this round may mean both top coins and new coins will benefit, while middle coins will starve. Liquidity is not as abundant and is overly concentrated, mainly focused on the leading coins in popular sectors.
Top certainty BETA coins: BTC, SOL, DOGE
Possible BETA coins: XRP
These coins are large-cap coins, which can be confidently traded for swings, and one can also maneuver between these few coins according to the rhythm.
Top underperforming coins: ETH, BNB
Ethereum's ecosystem is underperforming, BNB's mining has no wealth creation effect, and market-making is extremely unpleasant; being weak is for a reason. The result of waiting for a rebound is that it never happens, and when it drops, it will drop together, so caution is required.
Top ALPHA coins: The current emerging track is the on-chain track of SOL. At the beginning of the year, it was about on-chain inscriptions; now doing on-chain dog-related activities follows the same principle. Note that on-chain coins have already entered the secondary spot market, such as top neiro, PUNT, ACT. Compared to top BETA coins, these coins have much higher volatility and the possibility that the main upward wave has not finished.
