Regarding the technical analysis of BTC, there are currently two possible hypotheses: the first is that we are now in the stage of red line 4, and after completing red line 4, we will enter red line 5 and subsequently make a correction towards the red line; the second hypothesis is that red line 4 has already been completed, the market is now moving towards red line 5, and has already started a volatile upward trend, gradually making new highs.
The current trend is somewhat similar to the trends in November and December 2023, mainly reflected in the market's strong horizontal consolidation along the upper track of the triangle, as if repairing some technical indicators and maintaining a certain range for consolidation.
Regarding altcoins:
In the case of uncertain movements in BTC, the performance of altcoins has also caused anxiety. Buying altcoins raises concerns about BTC's correction, which could lead to a crash of altcoins; not buying altcoins makes one worry about missing out on the market. Currently, my secondary old altcoins have basically completed break-even and closing actions, and some have begun to gradually re-establish positions. It is now necessary to closely monitor the BTC dominance (BTCD) indicator. If it breaks below the green line and continues to intertwine, we may welcome the season of altcoins.
However, major coins like DOGE, XRP, and ADA have shown weak rebound strength, and Ethereum and BNB have also failed to keep up with BTC's rise, thus their performance is relatively weak. Small-cap coins lack effective support in the current market environment. If you did not participate in the market's rise a few days ago, rushing to chase the market now (FOMO) may bring greater risks, often leading to losses.
Currently, the new leading MEME coins still deserve the most attention and may be the main varieties in this round of market. In a situation of limited liquidity, market funds tend to concentrate excessively on these popular leading coins. Overall, the flow of market funds is similar to the trends in the US stock market, where investors mainly focus on those sectors and coins with the most potential, while other mid and small-cap coins may face significant pressure.
