In a series of exchanges on X, Adam Back, CEO of blockchain technology company Blockstream, predicted that if the U.S. establishes a strategic Bitcoin reserve (SBR) under the leadership of elected President Donald Trump, Bitcoin could soar above $1 million. 'If a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve occurs, prepare for 7-figure Bitcoin. This cycle. The market is currently skeptical about meaningful follow-through, so this is not priced in at all,' Back stated.
If a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve occurs, prepare for 7-figure Bitcoin. This cycle. The market is currently skeptical about meaningful follow-through, so this has not been digested at all.
This bold prediction sparked discussions among industry experts and enthusiasts. Notable cryptocurrency analyst James Van Straten responded, '7 figures? I don't think I'm ready for 6.' Back acknowledged the market's doubts, responding, 'However, that's a pretty big 'if.' At least if we infer from the market price, the market believes that a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve is unlikely. If this happens, I expect a rapid repricing.'
Can Bitcoin rise to $1 million per coin?
This conversation highlights the market's skepticism about the feasibility of the U.S. government accumulating such a large Bitcoin reserve. Like other experts, Van Straten suggested that a country could consider 'buying in advance' for this potential scenario, to which Back pointed out, 'There is no other good way besides very, very quietly buying 1 million BTC. Even so, once it leaks, the entire world will be affected by FOMO, and a price spike will occur.'
The custodial interoperability protocol for Bitcoin, Portal, participated in the discussion via X: 'If the U.S. starts doing this, other regions of the world will certainly follow suit. This sentiment underscores the potential global chain reaction for Bitcoin adoption and valuation initiated by the U.S.-led SBR.'
X user AndyLiteMan (@LiteAndy) also expressed skepticism, criticizing Back's astronomical prediction: 'While this is exciting, it won't happen. We hear this every cycle.' Back stood by his position, emphasizing the conditional nature of his prediction: 'I'm saying 'if,' but so far, the market doesn't believe it.'
According to Bitcoinist, Dennis Porter, CEO and founder of the U.S. nonprofit organization Satoshi Act Fund which advocates for Bitcoin adoption, claimed on November 18 that Donald Trump's team is considering an executive order to establish a national SBR. 'I've heard that the Trump team is considering an executive order regarding a national 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' to beat any state to pass it into law first,' Porter revealed via X, 'I can confirm that the U.S. Senate office is supporting this plan. The game of President Trump has begun. The race is on.'
Porter is deeply involved in the legislative work surrounding Bitcoin adoption, noting that his information comes from 'private conversations with people familiar with the matter,' as well as his direct involvement in promoting SBR language both in the U.S. and internationally.
It is important to note the distinction in the proposals being discussed. Porter mentioned that Trump's consideration relates to an executive order to establish a national SBR. This contrasts sharply with Trump's earlier suggestion at the Bitcoin 2024 conference to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve by retaining all 'seized coins' acquired through law enforcement actions.
Additionally, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed a (Bitcoin bill) that suggests the U.S. government purchase 1 million BTC over five years, allocating 200,000 BTC each year. In response to this legislative initiative, Back commented on a screenshot from the Polymarket prediction market that displayed, 'Will Trump establish a national Bitcoin reserve?' He clarified, 'Optimistically IMO, it depends on their intentions. 'Not selling seized coins' is completely different from Senator Lummis's SBR bill to buy 1 million BTC.'
The latter could lead to a surge in Bitcoin prices. Back emphasized the logistical challenges of such a large-scale acquisition: 'There is no other good way besides very, very quietly buying 1 million BTC. Even so, once it leaks, the entire world will be affected by FOMO, and a price spike will occur.'
As of the time of publication, the trading price of BTC is $92,329.
