Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing a wave of euphoria, with 99.3% of unspent transaction output in profit, according to data fromCryptoQuant. This is a historically important moment for cryptocurrency, but as the excitement builds, the question arises: what happens next? Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, has outlined two possible scenarios for the future of the Bitcoin price.

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The first scenario suggests that Bitcoin could continue its price discovery phase as it has in previous cycles. In this scenario, theprice of BTC would continue to rise, with new highs being set in the coming months. This could last anywhere from 3 to 12 months, which is how long past bullish phases have typically lasted.

The second scenario is more cautious, as Ju warns that the current rally could be the peak and a big drop could follow, similar to the crash that occurred in November 2021.

#Bitcoin euphoria is here.99.3% of UTXOs are in profit now. Everyone's happy. This euphoric phase typically lasts 3–12 months (except Nov '21 bull trap).This started 2 weeks ago. Shorting now could be either catching the top—or shorting at the bottom of a parabolic bull run. pic.twitter.com/bjHKTuNKGf

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) November 19, 2024

Despite the possibility of the second scenario, the analyst warns that trying to shortBitcoin now could be a risky move.

Hold, not sell

This caution is based on his broader philosophy on Bitcoin. In previous posts, Ju has emphasized that Bitcoin is an asset to be held, not sold. He believes that Bitcoin is the strongest hedge against dollar devaluation, making it a safer store of value compared to fiat currencies.

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In arguing against selling Bitcoin, Ki Young Ju recalls the late 2020 price discovery phase, when many traders bet against Bitcoin by shorting it. This move backfired as the short squeeze fueled a bull run. Suggesting that history may be repeating itself with similar risks ahead, the analyst urged his followers not to sell BTC and to adopt a disciplined holding approach.