Due to policy reasons, future articles will contain less macro content. I will focus more on industry information disclosure and analysis, and provide brief reminders if there is any important macro news.
Regarding ETFs, on November 18, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of US$254 million, and the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of US$39.08 million.
QCP Capital Analysis points out that currently, Bitcoin's market dominance is about 60%, and only when this ratio drops below 58% can the altcoin season be officially announced. Investors may not be fully ready to turn to the altcoin market, as Bitcoin seems to have further room to rise before breaking the $100,000 milestone. With the possibility of more crypto-friendly policies from the Trump administration and further declines in interest rates, we expect the altcoin season to be fully launched in the coming months. With the support of political and institutional forces, the prediction of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is no longer an unattainable dream. Generally speaking, the downward trend of Bitcoin's market share will last for 3-6 months, and this period is the altcoin season.
According to Bitwise, on September 20, 2024, the SEC approved the listing and trading of options for the iShares Bitcoin Trust. On November 15, 2024, the CFTC's clearing and risk department released an employee advisory related to the clearing of these options. According to this advisory, the OCC is preparing for the clearing, settlement, and risk management of such options. From the information on the OCC website, the listing date for IBIT options is today. The listing of Bitcoin options ETFs will bring additional liquidity to the market, which is also a significant benefit for the market.
MicroStrategy announced it has accumulated 331,200 Bitcoins, with a total cost of about $16.5 billion, at an average purchase price of $49,874 per Bitcoin. The latest purchase of 51,780 BTC cost about $4.6 billion, with a unit price of $88,627. In Michael Saylor's view, Bitcoins priced below 100k are a bargain.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju released data showing that the trading volume of retail-level Bitcoin (under $100,000) has reached a three-year high, indicating retail investors are entering the market.
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that after Trump's election victory, Ethereum ETFs have emerged from the abyss of capital outflows, ultimately welcoming fresh air and net inflows. With the Ethereum upgrade expected at the end of this year or early next year, the market may start a wave of speculation.
On November 19 at 00:17 (UTC+8), Tether issued 1 billion USDT on the ETH chain; at 01:11 (UTC+8) on November 19, Tether burned 2 billion USDT on the TRX chain.
On-chain, the average flow of exchanges in the past 30 days has not reached a peak, and is currently just at the annual average, indicating that there are not many Bitcoin sellers in the current market.
In terms of market trends, Bitcoin's movement remains healthy. Although there was a certain spike and pullback yesterday, it can be seen that the trend is still in a low supply state. From a technical perspective, reaching a new high is still highly probable, but whether it can directly surpass 100k is uncertain. It is possible that after reaching a new high, there will be a pullback adjustment before moving up. The smaller time frame trends are fine and are basically in a low supply pattern. Continue to hold positions and be patient; the larger cycle is fine.
ETH linkage, the exchange rate at the bottom is still unclear and needs further exploration.
Regarding altcoins, the basic movement remains linked, with a certain cooling in the activity of funds in the market, but the overall trend has not changed. The altcoin season has not yet started, and the strongest profit-making phase has not yet appeared. Bitcoin's market cap percentage is still high, waiting for a turning point. Be patient.
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