Bitcoin has started to oscillate at a small level again. In this kind of market, both long and short positions are at risk of liquidation, with fluctuations of two or three thousand points. However, the more this kind of large fluctuation occurs, the greater the probability of an upward trend later, as it belongs to high-level washout. When the pressure lightens, it will naturally break through new highs again.
Bitcoin has been fluctuating around 90,000 for a week. This week will definitely choose a direction. 99% of retail investors in the market have not bought Bitcoin and hope it will drop so they can get on board, but from the perspective of institutions, capital, and major players, they only think about how to push the Bitcoin price higher, breaking 100,000 or even 120,000, which is why the price remains high.
Many shorts are still trapped near 75,000—79,000—82,000, and almost no one dares to chase the long positions around 90,000. Contract market data shows that if Bitcoin rises to 100,000, short liquidations amount to 2.09 billion, and if Bitcoin drops to 73,000, long liquidations are 2.07 billion. Given this data ratio, do you think institutions will drive the price down to pick you up? It’s not easy to push it up to 90,000 only to drop it down to 75,000; isn’t that a case of dropping trousers to fart? Unless the top of Bitcoin is at 93,000 and the bull market ends, then it wouldn't stop at 75,000; it would go directly down to 40,000. This possibility is nearly impossible, so don’t even think about it.
So how will institutions operate at this time?
Bitcoin may reach its target before the end of the month. At this time, the shorts around 75,000—79,000—81,000 will basically all be liquidated. Only then is a significant pullback possible. After all, breaking through the 100,000 USD mark is not something that can happen all at once. If it touches 100,000 and then washes down to 85,000, then at that time, the market shorts will have been killed, and the longs will harvest again, returning to oscillate between 93,000—95,000. This operation maximizes institutional profits.
It is already November 19, and there is about a month until Christmas. Every year, before Christmas, there is usually a washout, and only during the Spring Festival will the market start to move. Therefore, Bitcoin is likely to stagnate instead of dropping. After 1-2 weeks of sideways movement, a direction will emerge at the end of the month. Recently, the focus continues to be on buying back dips in altcoins, steadily accumulating low-potential altcoins, looking forward to next year's bull market pulling up 5-10 times.
Whether you like this article or not is irrelevant, but please do not operate randomly anymore. It hurts to watch; it's a shame to waste such a good market. The biggest taboo in a bull market is to exchange stagnant coins for coins that have already surged, as each coin has a different rhythm of growth. When it explodes, it only takes a few days to rise significantly. Chasing popular coins often leads to picking up sesame seeds and losing watermelons.
Some retail investors complain: you talk about inscriptions today, animals tomorrow, and AI memes the day after, but it's just to use garbage assets to cut leeks. Brother, the crypto world is constantly evolving rapidly. The reason you feel like others are cutting you might be that your learning speed is too slow, your actions too slow, and you can't keep up with the rhythm at all. The market is never wrong; the mistake lies with those who do not understand the trend.
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