Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)
As the second term of President Trump approaches, some key positions in his cabinet have emerged in recent days, but the competition for the position of Secretary of the Treasury has become increasingly fierce.
According to current market expectations, the nomination of the new Secretary of the Treasury may be announced as early as this week, but the Trump team has not yet made a final decision on the candidate. This morning, Fox Business reporter Charles Gasparino revealed that the Trump team has sought advice from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and at least one other BlackRock executive; additionally, Trump will meet with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong to discuss personnel issues of the next government.
The prediction market Polymarket has opened a betting pool for the Secretary of the Treasury position, and as of around 10:00, the trading volume of this pool has exceeded $2 million. The current popular potential candidates are as follows (only covering the top 6 candidates, the remaining candidates have very low probabilities):
Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh;
Key Square Group founder Scott Bessent;
Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick;
Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan;
Former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer;
Senator Bill Hagerty.
At present, the market is obviously looking forward to a person with a more friendly attitude towards cryptocurrency taking control of the Treasury, thereby providing a more lenient growth environment for the industry. Next, Odaily Planet Daily will sequentially sort out the past attitudes of these six potential candidates towards the cryptocurrency industry.
Probability front-runner: Kevin Warsh
First of all, it is worth celebrating that the current candidate with the highest nomination probability, former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh (46%), has long been seen as a supporter of cryptocurrency – even earlier than Trump's change of attitude.
As early as the beginning of 2021, Warsh stated in an interview with CNBC: "In an economic situation where the dollar is weakening, Bitcoin makes sense as part of an investment portfolio."
In 2022, Warsh also invested in Bitwise, one of the leading forces in promoting ETF for BTC and ETH.
However, one controversy surrounding Warsh is that he has repeatedly expressed support for central bank digital currencies (CBDC), which may not be well-received by the decentralized cryptocurrency industry.
The latest news is that the Trump team supports Warsh for Secretary of the Treasury. Warsh has been invited to Trump's Mar-a-Lago for discussions, but related discussions are still ongoing.
Soros' former deputy: Scott Bessent
Scott Bessent, founder of hedge fund Key Square Group and former deputy of Soros, was once seen as the most likely candidate for the next Secretary of the Treasury, and his nomination probability even led Polymarket at one point. However, following the public opposition from 'American Guardian' Elon Musk against Bessent serving as Secretary of the Treasury, his nomination probability directly declined.
Just as Musk criticized Bessent for being "business as usual," Bessent is seen as a more traditional figure. The Associated Press has reported him as a "skeptic of cryptocurrency."
However, as Trump increasingly supports cryptocurrency, Bessent's stance has also changed; he stated in July: "I am excited that the president is embracing cryptocurrency, I think it aligns very well with the Republican Party, cryptocurrency represents freedom, and the cryptocurrency economy will continue to exist."
The latest news is that Bessent may turn to serve as the chairman of the National Economic Council, but this result is also not yet determined.
The man behind Tether: Howard Lutnick
While Elon Musk publicly opposed Bessent, he also openly supported Trump's transition team co-chair and Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick. As a result, Lutnick's nomination probability once led but later declined due to rumors of Warsh's imminent rise.
Lutnick himself is a staunch supporter of cryptocurrency and can even be seen as the most pro-crypto among several candidates.
Lutnick's Cantor Fitzgerald manages more than half of Tether's stablecoin reserves; Lutnick has personally spoken at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville; Lutnick has also advocated for classifying Bitcoin as a commodity similar to gold and oil and called for clearer regulation in the cryptocurrency space.
The $700 billion helm: Marc Rowan
The name of Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan has only recently been included among potential candidates.
Although Rowan's company focuses on alternative asset investments, he rarely expresses views on cryptocurrency. In 2022, Rowan stated in an interview with Bloomberg that "the ecosystem built around cryptocurrency is simply amazing"; however, this year, when asked if cryptocurrency would play a role in the future of the U.S. financial system, he said that this topic "exceeded his understanding."
The Financial Times reported that some Wall Street executives hold a positive attitude toward Rowan's potential nomination, but they also believe that Rowan will find it difficult to give up his position as CEO of Apollo Global Management, which has assets under management totaling $700 billion.
"Trade war" architect: Robert Lighthizer
Robert Lighthizer has not explicitly expressed his stance on cryptocurrency, but the market should remain cautious of Lighthizer's potential appointment.
Lighthizer served as the former U.S. Trade Representative during Trump's first term and is regarded as a "hardline trade protectionist." Politico has referred to him as the "architect" of Trump's tariff trade war with China. The market generally worries that Lighthizer's appointment will affect the vitality and stability of global trade activities.
Cryptocurrency bill promoter: Bill Hagerty
The probability of Tennessee Republican Senator Bill Hagerty becoming Secretary of the Treasury is low, but he has actually pushed for the advancement of cryptocurrency-related legislation as a senator.
In October of this year, Hagerty announced a legislative discussion draft aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Investment bank TD Cowen indicated in a report that this draft could become the outline for future legislation in 2025.
Hagerty has also expressed support for Trump's initiative to make the U.S. a cryptocurrency hub, and he mentioned in July regarding the Bitcoin industry that: "We need to ensure this happens in the U.S."
The regulatory spring for cryptocurrency
In summary, the candidate for the next Secretary of the Treasury of the United States is expected to emerge soon. From the perspective of potential successors, aside from the ambiguous attitude of Robert Lighthizer, the names currently revealed mostly hold a relatively friendly attitude towards cryptocurrency.
For the cryptocurrency industry long plagued by regulatory troubles, the next few years may be the most lenient environment in the industry's history, and this regulatory spring might be the best opportunity for various parties in the industry to seek development.
