Recently, multiple important news have emerged from the market, releasing obvious positive signals. Whether it's the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations, the push for Bitcoin's strategic reserve policy, or the continued investment from institutional investors, the overall market sentiment is gradually turning optimistic.
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut has increased, and the signal for monetary easing is strong.
According to CME's 'Federal Reserve Watch,' the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is as high as 61.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 38.1%. By January 2024, the expectation for rate cuts further heats up, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 54.3% and a 50 basis point cut at 19.8%. This data indicates that the Federal Reserve may begin to signal liquidity easing before the end of the year.
Historical data shows that whenever the Federal Reserve enters a rate cut cycle, the performance of risk assets, especially Bitcoin, tends to be exceptionally strong. This is because a rate cut means a decrease in the cost of funds and an increase in market liquidity, which is particularly beneficial for high-risk, high-return assets like cryptocurrencies.
The Bitcoin strategic reserve policy enters the international spotlight.
Recently, Bitcoin has welcomed some breakthrough developments at the policy level. The Satoshi Action Fund has publicly released its Bitcoin strategic reserve policy model, providing global legislators with tools for Bitcoin technology and policy-making. This initiative not only enhances Bitcoin's public awareness but also supports more countries adopting Bitcoin as a strategic asset in the future.
At the same time, Polish presidential candidate Sławomir Mentzen also stated that if elected, he will establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Considering that El Salvador already holds 5936.7 BTC, worth about $536 million, if Poland joins this ranks, it will further prove the strategic significance of Bitcoin as a 'national asset.'
Institutions are aggressively increasing their positions, and BTC's long-term potential is limitless.
The actions of institutional investors are also noteworthy. According to Dune data, the on-chain holdings of the US spot Bitcoin ETF have exceeded 1.044 million BTC, accounting for 5.28% of the current supply, with an on-chain value of $94.4 billion. This indicates that institutional investors are confident in Bitcoin's long-term value.
More notably, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor hinted at possibly continuing to increase BTC holdings, which would further attract the follow-on effect from traditional institutions. In addition, former independent candidate Robert Kennedy revealed that he has invested 'the majority of his wealth' in Bitcoin, referring to it as 'freedom money.' The endorsements from celebrities and institutions will continue to strengthen Bitcoin's asset value.
Solana has emerged, and the trend of industry diversification is obvious.
Among other crypto assets, Solana (SOL) has also performed well. Its market capitalization has reached $112.31 billion, successfully surpassing Sony and Medtronic, jumping to the 165th position in global asset market capitalization. This not only affirms the value of the Solana ecosystem but also indicates that the diversification of the crypto asset market is taking shape.
According to Token Unlocks data, tokens such as AVAX, ROSE, and ADA will experience significant unlocks this week, including:
Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock approximately 1.67 million tokens at 8 AM Beijing time on November 18, accounting for 0.41% of the current circulation, valued at about $61.3 million;
Oasis (ROSE) will unlock approximately 176 million tokens at midnight Beijing time on November 19, accounting for 2.62% of the current circulation, valued at about $14.6 million;
Cardano (ADA) will unlock approximately 18.53 million tokens at 8 AM Beijing time on November 21, accounting for 0.05% of the current circulation, valued at about $13.4 million;
Pixels (PIXEL) will unlock approximately 54.37 million tokens at 6 PM Beijing time on November 19, accounting for 7.05% of the current circulation, valued at about $11.4 million.
BTC: Bitcoin has consistently shown spinning top candles at high levels on the daily chart for several days, indicating that the market is in a brief tug-of-war between bulls and bears, but the price has been oscillating along the 5-day moving average without significant pullbacks. This indicates that bullish momentum remains relatively strong. Looking at the weekly chart, last week closed with a large bullish candle, which is a typical strong signal, with bulls dominating at the weekly level. In terms of indicators, the MACD bullish momentum bar adjustment is about to end, indicating that the upward trend still has the momentum to continue.
In summary, although the market is in a high-level adjustment, the overall trend is healthy, and there is a high probability of continuing to run along the 5-day moving average and creating new historical highs in the coming days.
ETH: Ethereum follows Bitcoin's trend.
Altcoins: Recently, ADA, LTC, ETC, XRP, these established altcoins have begun to rise, and the atmosphere of the altcoin season is becoming more intense. With the increase in Bitcoin's price, the altcoin market will also strengthen synchronously, until Bitcoin encounters resistance after breaking new highs, at which point altcoins are expected to rise comprehensively. At the same time, Bitcoin's market capitalization percentage will gradually decrease. For those holding altcoins, maintaining patience is very important; the current bull market is still in the first stage, and we should continue to wait for the right opportunity.
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 83 (Extreme Greed)#AVAX、ROSE、ADA大额解锁
