Bitcoin is in a short-term consolidation phase, and its consolidation level is 4 hours (4H) level, involving the 4-hour moving average 60 (4HMA60) range. Specifically,
Trend triangle situation
The trend triangle formed by 4HMA60 has not been destroyed yet. This trend triangle has important reference significance for judging the subsequent trend of Bitcoin. The maintenance of its shape means that the price trend is still within the corresponding constraint framework.
Selling pressure situation
In this trend triangle, the selling pressure at the front end is relatively small, while the selling pressure at the back end is large. The small selling pressure at the front end may imply that the downward resistance faced by the price is relatively weak when it approaches the front end; the large selling pressure at the back end indicates that as the price moves toward the back end of the trend triangle, the selling pressure faced will gradually increase, forming a greater obstacle to the upward breakthrough of the price.
Slope of the moving average situation
The slope of the moving average has shown signs of slowing down, which reflects that the rate of change of Bitcoin prices has slowed down, and its momentum for rising or falling is gradually weakening. It also reflects from the side that it is currently in a consolidation phase, and the forces of both long and short sides are in a state of relative balance and mutual game.
Key time nodes and subsequent trends
The limit time point is November 22. Before this time, the price of Bitcoin will either break through the constraints of the triangle upward and start a new round of rising market; or fall below the MA60 moving average and enter a larger range for consolidation. At that time, the price fluctuation range may be further expanded and the trend will become more complicated.
Current position and strength judgment
Currently, the price of Bitcoin is in the middle of the triangle and is still consolidating in the upper range. From this situation, it is in a relatively strong state at this stage.
In the future, we need to pay close attention to whether it can continue to maintain this strong range. If it can be maintained, the possibility of breaking through the triangle upward will increase; if it cannot be maintained, the probability of falling below MA60 and entering a larger range for consolidation will increase accordingly.
