Today, Monday, I reviewed the market in recent days. It really makes me feel like I traveled back to September to the end of October last year. The storyline at that time was also about repeated inflation and the shattered illusion of the end of the market interest rate hike.
U.S. bonds are in turmoil, with the 10-year yield rising to 5%; the U.S. dollar index has rushed all the way to 106.8; the Nasdaq has fallen so much that people doubt their lives (a 15% drop); on the other hand, Bitcoin has become the king of rebounds, soaring from 24,000 to 33,000.
Until now, although the plot has changed a bit, the core is still the same: inflation is slightly repeated, and the "interest rate cut dream" has been postponed; U.S. bonds continue to jump up and down, and the market continues to wait and see with a helpless look.
Speaking of Bitcoin and U.S. stocks, the relationship is like two good brothers at the wine table. They usually drink equally hard, but they sway at critical moments. Especially after a long period of shock adjustment, this "different frequency" is more obvious.
From April to September last year, Bitcoin took off against the market after a full 5 months of fishing. This year, Bitcoin has been adjusting for a longer period of time, with more than six months of practice, as if to say: Hold on, I'm holding back a big move.
Then the question is, will history repeat itself? Just like the owner of the kebab stall asks you from time to time: Brother, do you want another serving? At present, Bitcoin may really have a bit of last year's flavor: US stocks have been falling, and market sentiment has been jumping back and forth between "Hey, why haven't you cut interest rates yet" and "Wow, inflation is coming again."
Bitcoin has found a wave of counter-market trends, but like last year, it also depends on whether liquidity and market sentiment are strong enough. If it is really reproduced, then sit back and watch Bitcoin perform a good show of single-handedly fighting; if it is not reproduced, at least it is a suspense film, and we retail investors will not lose!
