Global markets opened on Monday with a mild but slightly nervous tone: gold and the US dollar rose slightly, while oil prices fell further. However, Goldman Sachs downgraded the Hong Kong stock rating to underweight, and this news may suppress market risk appetite. $BTC $ETH
1. Today's focus is on the stock market. The decline of the US stock market last Friday will put pressure on the Asian stock market today. The good news is that the US stock futures opened smoothly today and did not show a significant decline. Whether the US stock market can stop falling tonight is the key to avoiding panic. After Trump's election, the stock market's gains have been lost by more than half. Powell's warning of a rate cut and Trump's cabinet selection dragged down Wall Street.
2. The US dollar may do nothing today because it has encountered technical resistance and it is difficult to rise further without a catalyst. But if it can break through the high point set last Thursday today, it indicates that the US stock market, gold, offshore RMB and other markets will further break down. For the US dollar, Japan is a variable. If Japan defends the yen, it may cause the US dollar to fall.
3. Today's events are relatively rare. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee's speech at 23:00 Beijing time has attracted attention, and people are increasingly skeptical about how much further the Fed can cut interest rates. He appeared on CNBC's screen last Friday to save the market, but it did not have much impact on the market. He said at the time that as long as inflation continues to fall back toward the central bank's 2% target, interest rates will fall "substantially" in the next 12-18 months. Comparing his speech today with his speech last Friday, we will be able to get more useful information. At least seven Fed officials will speak this week, and they are expected to be cautious about a sharp interest rate cut. Investors have accepted this "half" conjecture: interest rates may not be cut in December as previously expected.
4. Wall Street does not believe that Trump will let the stock market fall, because the stock market is his "scorecard". But Wall Street may have overlooked the fact that the current period is still "Biden's term" and does not count towards Trump's score. It is entirely possible that Trump will disclose the details of the tariffs before he is sworn in on January 20, allowing the stock market to digest the downward pressure first. In fact, the Trump team has put forward a series of economic policy recommendations, which many strategists believe will increase the risk of rising inflation and slowing economic growth.
All of this is likely to keep markets in a state of uncertainty until the next round of key data is released.
