Futures Morning Rush-Audio Version

Female Mandarin Version Download mp3

Macro News

1. Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on November 15 that the consumer price index remained generally stable in October, and prices in some areas rebounded slightly driven by improved demand. CPI prices will maintain a slight upward trend in the next stage; my country's real estate market has entered a new development stage and will shift from focusing on quantity expansion to focusing on quality optimization in the future.

2. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in October, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.5396 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.6 percentage points from the previous month; in October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size actually increased by 5.3% year-on-year.

3. According to the National Interbank Funding Center, in order to further enrich investors' performance benchmarks and investment targets, the National Interbank Funding Center will officially release the CFETS Interbank Inclusive Finance Bond Index from now on. The CFETS Interbank Inclusive Finance Bond Index is adjusted once a month. The index base date is December 31, 2020, and the basis point value is 100.

4. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of November 15, 2024, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (Comprehensive Index) was 2251.90 points, down 79.68 points from the previous period.

5. According to Yicai, recently, the increase in mortgage interest rates in cities such as Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Changsha, which are not less than 3%, has become a hot topic of public discussion. In the view of the industry, the increase in mortgage interest rates is mainly to maintain a certain gap between the mortgage commercial loan interest rate and the provident fund loan interest rate, so as to maintain the inclusive nature of the provident fund loan.

6. Ling Ji, Vice Minister of Commerce and Deputy Representative for International Trade Negotiations, said that the Ministry of Commerce will continue to be guided by the needs and problems of foreign-invested enterprises, continue to implement the 24 articles on foreign investment, and actively study policies that are conducive to the stabilization and recovery of foreign investment.

7. Fed Goolsby said that we will consider interest rate cuts with reference to the Fed's September dot plot. Personally, I prefer not to move directly towards the neutral interest rate, and should slow down when approaching the neutral interest rate. pace, the neutral rate is significantly lower than where the Fed's policy rate currently is.

8. On November 16, according to the latest report from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, China's export container shipping market saw an adjustment in the week of November 11, with transport demand lacking the momentum for further growth, freight rates on most routes falling, and the comprehensive index falling.

Global futures market changes

1. Domestic commodity futures closed mostly down at night trading, energy and chemical products generally fell, LPG fell 2.7%, crude oil fell 2.25%, rubber fell 1.96%, soda ash fell 1.87%, fuel oil fell 1.71%, butadiene rubber fell 1.43%, and No. 20 rubber fell 1.4%. Black series fell across the board, rebar fell 1.19%, iron ore fell 1.14%, coking coal fell 1.06%, hot-rolled coil fell nearly 1%, and coke fell nearly 1%. Most agricultural products fell, soybean meal fell 1.16%, soybean meal fell 1.01%, rapeseed meal fell 1.01%, and palm oil rose 1.12%. Basic metals closed down across the board, Shanghai aluminum fell 1.63%, Shanghai tin fell 1.33%, Shanghai zinc fell 0.83%, Shanghai nickel fell 0.42%, Shanghai lead fell 0.3%, and Shanghai copper fell 0.26%. Shanghai gold rose 0.04%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.18%.

2. International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.21% to $2,567.4 per ounce, down 4.73% for the week, and COMEX silver futures down 0.77% to $30.335 per ounce, down 3.54% for the week.

3. International oil prices fell across the board. The December contract of U.S. crude oil fell 2.55% to $66.95 per barrel, a weekly drop of 4.87%; the January 2025 contract of Brent crude oil fell 2.09% to $71.04 per barrel, a weekly drop of 3.83%.

4. London base metals closed with mixed gains and losses, with LME copper futures down 0.21% to $8,971/ton, down 5% for the week; LME zinc futures up 0.37% to $2,953.5/ton, down 0.87% for the week; LME nickel futures down 0.92% to $15,475/ton, down 5.62% for the week; LME aluminum futures up 5.56% to $2,656.5/ton, up 1.37% for the week; LME tin futures down 1.39% to $28,530/ton, down 9.85% for the week; LME lead futures down 0.46% to $1,951/ton, down 3.61% for the week.

5. The main agricultural futures contracts of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed higher collectively, with soybean futures up 1.09% at 998.25 cents per bushel, down 3.11% for the week; corn futures up 1.19% at 424 cents per bushel, down 1.62% for the week; and wheat futures up 1.27% at 537 cents per bushel, down 6.2% for the week.

Black hot news

1. According to Mysteel, Hesteel Group's first round of inquiries for silicon manganese in November was 6,100 yuan/ton, and the price of silicon manganese in October was 6,200 yuan/ton. (The price in November 2023 is 6,730 yuan/ton).

2. National Bureau of Statistics: From January to October, the housing construction area of ​​real estate developers was 720,660 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%.

3. National Bureau of Statistics: In October 2024, China's crude steel output was 81.88 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; pig iron output was 70.26 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%; steel output was 119.41 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%.

4. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that from January to October, the national real estate development investment was 863.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%; among them, residential investment was 656.44 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.4%.

5. Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country is 152.8051 million tons, an increase of 114,500 tons from the previous month, and the average daily port throughput of 45 ports is 3.2566 million tons, an increase of 112,700 tons from the previous month. On November 15, Mysteel statistics showed that the inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports across the country was 158.6051, an increase of 6.45% from the previous month; the average daily port throughput was 3.4006, an increase of 12.17%. (Unit: 10,000 tons)

6. On November 15, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills and found that the blast furnace operating rate was 82.08%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 2.41 percentage points from the same period last year.

7. According to Mysteel, on the 15th, some steel mills in Shandong market reduced the purchase price of coke by 55 yuan/ton; some steel mills in Xingtai area reduced the price of wet quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and the price of dry quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton; the mainstream steel mills in Tangshan market plan to reduce the price of wet quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and the price of dry quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton.

8. According to Mysteel, on November 15, the price of coking coal in Shaoyang market was reduced by 80 yuan/ton. The acceptance price of main coking coal A7.0, S0.7, V24, G80-83, Y17-19 and MT7 was 1,780 yuan/ton including tax.

9. According to Gangyin E-commerce, the total urban inventory this week was 7.0784 million tons, a decrease of 267,000 tons (-3.63%) from last week, including 39 cities and a total of 147 warehouses.

Hot news on agricultural products

1. According to Wind data, as of the week of November 15, the profit of self-breeding and self-raising pig farming was 206.53 yuan/head, and on November 8 it was a profit of 263.75 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 43.56 yuan/head, and on November 8 it was a loss of 54.15 yuan/head.

2. According to foreign media reports, India imported 359,000 tons of palm oil from Malaysia in October. In the 12 months ending October 30, the country's total purchases of Malaysian palm oil exceeded 3.2 million tons.

3. According to foreign media reports, data released by consulting firm Safras & Mercado showed that Brazil's total corn production in 2024/25 is estimated to be 134.8 million tons, more than 1 million tons higher than the estimate in September.

4. According to foreign media reports, data released by the Canadian Grain Commission showed that Canada's canola exports increased 29.6% to 264,500 tons in the week ending November 10, compared with 204,100 tons in the previous week.

5. According to Mysteel Agricultural Products' nationwide dynamic full-sample oil mill survey, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills in the 46th week (November 9 to November 15) was 1.9437 million tons, and the operating rate was 55%, 51,000 tons higher than expected.

6. According to data from shipping research agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 to 15 were 713,182 tons, a decrease of 11.21% from 803,252 tons exported in the same period last month.

7. According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 to 15 were 707,932 tons, a decrease of 6% from 753,102 tons exported in the same period last month.

8. USDA data showed that the net sales of soybean exports in the United States in 2024/2025 were 1.555 million tons, in line with market expectations of 1-2.2 million tons, and 2.037 million tons in the previous week; of which, net sales of soybeans to China were 1.181 million tons, and 1.223 million tons in the previous week. The net sales of soybeans to China in 2024/2025 were 2.341 million tons, and 2.424 million tons in the previous week; of which, net sales of soybeans to China were 1.611 million tons, and 1.65 million tons in the previous week.

9. Data released by shipping research agency SGS showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 to 15 are expected to be 595,007 tons, a decrease of 16.47% from 712,323 tons exported in the same period last month.

10. NOPA data showed that U.S. soybean oil stocks in October 2024 were 1.069 billion pounds, the market expectation was 1.09 billion pounds, and the data in September was 1.066 billion pounds; soybean crushing volume in October 2024 was 199.959 million bushels, the market expectation was 196.843 million bushels, the data in September was 177.32 million bushels, and the data in October 2023 was 189.774 million bushels.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. According to Longzhong Information, as of November 14, the social inventory of PVC increased by 0.5% month-on-month to 480,200 tons, an increase of 12.35% year-on-year; among them, the East China region was 426,700 tons, a decrease of 0.45% month-on-month and an increase of 13.21% year-on-year; the South China region was 53,500 tons, an increase of 0.50% month-on-month and an increase of 5.94% year-on-year.

2. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2024, China's caustic soda (100%) production was 3.68 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. From January to October, the caustic soda production was 35.98 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%.

3. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in October, the industrial crude oil output of enterprises above designated size was 17.77 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, 1.4 percentage points faster than in September; the average daily output was 573,000 tons.

4. According to Wind data, as of November 14, the methanol inventory in East China ports was 686,200 tons, and on November 7 it was 673,600 tons, an increase of 12,500 tons from the previous month.

5. On Saturday local time, US President-elect Trump announced that he nominated Chris Wright as the next Secretary of Energy and said that a National Energy Commission would be established to promote energy production in the United States. It is reported that Wright is the CEO of oilfield service company Liberty Energy and has no previous experience working in Washington.

Metal Hot News

1. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the added value of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 7.7% year-on-year in October 2024, and the cumulative added value from January to October increased by 10.0% year-on-year.

2. According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, copper stocks decreased by 9,197 tons, aluminum stocks decreased by 35,713 tons, zinc stocks increased by 17,996 tons, lead stocks increased by 7,045 tons, nickel stocks decreased by 744 tons, and tin stocks decreased by 86 tons this week.

3. The Ministry of Finance announced that the export tax rebate for aluminum, copper, and chemically modified animal, plant or microbial oils and fats will be cancelled; the export tax rebate rate for some finished oils, photovoltaics, batteries, and some non-metallic mineral products will be reduced from 13% to 9%. This announcement will be implemented from December 1, 2024.

4. According to SMM, employees of Puetro Ventanas SA, operator of the Chilean port of Ventanas, went on strike due to failure to reach an agreement with the company on salary negotiations, resulting in delays in shipments of the Los Bronces, Andina and El Teniente copper mines.

5. Notice of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments on the issuance of the Guidelines for the Construction of the National Lithium Battery Industry Standard System (2024 Edition). It is mentioned that by 2026, more than 100 new national standards and industry standards will be formulated, the standard system leading the high-quality development of the lithium battery industry will be more sound, and the role of standards in consolidating the dominant position of the industry will continue to increase.

Talking about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. Rubber demand has entered the off-season, will rubber prices fluctuate and be bearish in the short term?

Guosen Futures analysis pointed out that the price of natural rubber continued to fluctuate and fall on Friday. With the arrival of cargoes, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, a major domestic port, has accumulated for three consecutive weeks, and the tight liquidity of spot goods has been alleviated to a certain extent, and spot trading has been under pressure. Foreign production areas are in the seasonal peak production season, and the market's expectations for future production have increased. The downstream has entered the seasonal off-season, new orders have slowed down, and the digestion of finished product inventories has been slow. In addition, the transmission of high costs downward is not smooth, and the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is limited. From a technical perspective, natural rubber RU2501 may maintain a volatile and weak operation in the short term. Operation suggestion: operate with a volatile and bearish mindset.

2. The positive logic of palm oil producing areas is gradually being fulfilled, and palm oil is expected to remain a bullish idea?

Xinhu Futures analysis pointed out that the market once again received positive news that Indonesia's palm oil export tax system may be adjusted, and palm oil rose more in the late trading. In the short term, palm oil is in a sensitive period of long-short game, with more news and the market may still fluctuate violently. The current production area's near-term shipping quotation is strong, supporting P2501 stronger than 2505. If Indonesia's expectation of firm implementation of B40 in January 25 does not change and the expectation of tight supply and demand in the production reduction season is realized, palm oil is expected to remain a long idea. As time goes by, the logic of palm oil production areas gradually enters the realization period, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the November inventory expectations of Malaysian palm oil.

A look at this week's important futures data and events

1. November 18th, to be determined, Malaysia's SPPOMA palm oil production forecast for November 1-15. Earlier data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Pressers Association (SPPOMA) showed that Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 3.49% from November 1 to 10; November 21st, to be determined, Malaysia's SPPOMA palm oil production forecast for November 1-20. Pay attention to data changes.

2. At 09:00 on November 20, China’s one-year and five-year loan market benchmark rates until November 20 were announced. Mingming, an analyst at CITIC Securities, said that in the context of a possible weak exchange rate, it is necessary to balance the moderate interest rate cuts at home and abroad, while further improving the monetary policy framework, especially further exerting the interest rate regulation function. There is room for downward adjustment of the policy interest rate, LPR, and deposit interest rates.

3. November 20th is to be determined. Malaysia’s ITS/AmSpec/SGS palm oil export data as of November 20th will be released. Previously, Malaysia’s palm oil exports in the first half of November only decreased to varying degrees month-on-month. Palm oil futures also fell. In the short term, we will pay attention to the November palm oil inventory expectations.

4. At 18:00 on November 20, the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) announced the global and Chinese primary aluminum production in October. Previous data showed that global primary aluminum production in September was 6.007 million tons and China's primary aluminum production was 3.595 million tons. Pay attention to the changes in this data.

5. November 20th is to be determined. WBMS will release the global metal supply and demand report for September. Previously, the global WBMS nickel market had a supply surplus of 4,600 tons in August, a shortage of 183,400 tons of refined aluminum, and a shortage of 64,400 tons of copper. Pay attention to the changes in supply and demand this time.

6. On November 20, a new round of price adjustment will be launched for domestic refined oil products. According to institutional analysis, combined with the current international oil price trend, the adjustment trend of domestic oil prices is not clear. Although international oil prices have rebounded, the increase has not yet reached the threshold for domestic oil price increases, so this round of oil price adjustments may be temporarily shelved.

7. November 20th is to be determined. The 2024 Urea Futures Conference will be held in Chengdu, Sichuan Province. The conference will invite relevant national business authorities and senior urea futures researchers to introduce the current operation of urea futures and spot markets, and focus on aspects such as urea futures analysis and forecasting.

8. At 21:30 on November 21, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending November 16. Previously, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending November 9 was 217,000, the lowest since the week of May 18, 2024. This decline in data suggests that the US job market continues to remain stable.

9. On November 22 at 01:25, Goolsbee, 2025 FOMC voting member and president of the Chicago Fed, participated in a Q&A session. Goolsbee said earlier that the overall trend is clearly that inflation has fallen significantly. Continue to pay attention to his comments on monetary policy and economic outlook.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data